基于G1-VPRS-MIE多层次灰色理论的引水明渠运行风险评价

Risk assessment of the diversion channels based on G1-VPRS-MIE multilevel grey theory

引水明渠的安全运行风险评价对减少和预防其在输水运行过程中的灾害发生、提高其在运营期间的社会经济效益具有重要的意义。为了对引水明渠在运行期间的风险进行合理赋权和评价,通过科学合理的方法构建了多指标参数的明渠运行风险影响因素指标体系,包括主体结构风险、自然风险、水污染风险、组织管理风险和运行调度风险5个风险因子子系统及20个二级指标在内的评价指标体系;运用G1和VPRS法分别确定各指标的主观权重和客观权重,结合MIE理论优化指标权重;根据明渠工程的运行特点,选取多层次灰色理论计算引水明渠运行风险值,并根据相关规范和安全风险评价实践确定风险评价等级。将该模型应用于引大入秦工程中,结果表明:采用序关系分析法(G1法)和变精度粗糙集理论(VPRS)并结合最小信息熵原理(MIE)的权重确定方法(G1-VPRS-MIE),不但避免了层次分析法过度依赖专家的主观经验、克服了粗糙集理论在边界刻画的局限性,而且弥补了主观和客观方法相结合的不足;对于指标权重的确定更加客观合理,既能满足所得权重的客观性,也能保证评估结果具有一定的解释性,同时能够减少单一权重计算的偏差;多层次灰色评价模型对于引水明渠安全运行风险等级的确定较为有效,并得出其风险等级为中等偏高,与实际情况一致。研究成果为引水明渠工程安全运行提供了一定的参考,同时可为类似气候环境的引水明渠区域规划、设计、施工提供有效的借鉴。

In order to rationally and reasonably assess and judge the risk degrees of the diversion channels during the operation,the given paper intends to build up an evaluation index system with a 5 reckless factors subsystem of the main structure risk,including the water supply safety risk,the environmental risk,the economic risk and the organization managerial risk with 20 secondary indexes. Such subjective and objective weights of the influential factors can then be calculated and assessed based on G1 and Variable Precision Rough Set(VPRS) so as to use and optimize the weights of the factors of the minimum information entropy(MIE). Since the risk assessment of the reckess operation of the water diversion channels is of great significance to reduce and prevent the coming up of disasters in the process of water transportation and irrigation for improving the socioeconomic benefits,a risk evaluation model can be adopted based on the multilevel grey theory for the convenience to calculate the operation risk levels of diversion channel,whereas the related standards and safety risk evaluation practice should be taken to determine the risk levels in accordance with the channel diversion operations,so that the given model can be oriented towards the project of the Datong River to Qinwangchuan. The above said results we have gained prove that the G1-WPRS-MIE weight method can not only help to relieve us from the over dependence on the subjective experience of the experts concerned in the Analytic Hierarchical Process( AHP) method to overcome the limitation of the rough set theory in the boundary description,but can also make up for the inefficiency of the mixed inclusion of subjective and objective judgment of the experts concerned. And,what ought to be critical is that the index weights calculation should be more reasonable and rational in satisfying the objectivity of the obtained weights and ensure the interpretation of the evaluation results.And,what is the dominant in assessment and inference is that such a kind of evaluation can help to reduce the misleading interpretation of the deviation of the assessment results in a single weight calculation,though the multi-level gray assessment model proves effective in determining the risk viability of the safety operation of the diversion channel. And,so,the evaluation results we have gained prove that the risk level is in a transformational stage from the medium to high,which is consistent with the actual situation. Hence, the research results we have gained can also be made as a piece of reference for the safe operation of the diversion channel. Meanwhile,the given study can be said offering persuasive materials for regional planning,design and construction of the diversion channels in the similar climate environment.