基于CW-MECN的冷却塔拆除爆破安全风险评价

Safety risk assessment of the cooling tower demolition blasting based on the composite weights and the multipleelements connection number

为了对冷却塔拆除爆破过程进行安全风险评价,实现对各类影响因素的动态分析,融合信息熵理论、层次分析法和集对分析理论,提出了一种组合权重(CW)与多元联系数(MECN)的拆除爆破安全风险态势评价体系,从现场安全管理、拆除爆破方案设计、爆破施工过程管理和爆区作业环境4个方面,选取17个评价指标,建立了拆除爆破安全风险评价模型。以某电厂冷却塔拆除爆破工程为例,对建立的安全风险评价模型进行了应用。结果表明,该方法实现了冷却塔拆除爆破过程中的静态风险态势和动态风险趋势的综合评价,评价结果为此类拆除爆破施工提供了决策依据,有效弥补了现有评价方法的不足。

To evaluate the process and the consequence of the cooling tower demolition blasting,the paper has chosen dynamically 17 indexes from the 4 aspects to analyze all the likely influential factors for the safety risk assessment category,including the site safety management,demolition blasting program design,the construction blasting process management and blasting area environment operation procedure so as to build up a safety risk evaluation index system. Actually,the composite weights of the evaluation indicators have to be determined by the coupled AHP and entropy weight method. What is more,the demolition blasting security risk assessment model of the composite weight( CW)-multiple-element contact number( MECN) has also to be prepared based on the theory of information entropy,the analytic hierarchy process and the set pair analysis theory. Taking the demolition blasting project of a power plant cooling tower for example,it is recommended to prepare a safety risk assessment model for the demolition blasting and the assessment safety of the demolition blasting procedure. The static risk situation of the system should be analyzed by the 5-element connection number and the risk development trend of each evaluation index by means of a partial contact number. And,what is most important is that the analysis results should be illustrated in the following manner. Of the 4 first-level indicators,the risk situation or the quality of the blasting demolition project should be done just opposite to the construction trend,with all the risk liabilities of the other firstlevel status-in-situ situation indicators being of the same trend.For instance,the preventive and protective measures should be taken for the design and preparation of the demolition plan with the risk-involved situations being taken as the contrary trend.The demolition plan and methods should realize that the comprehensive evaluation of the static risk situation and the dynamic risk trends in the process of demolition and blasting of the cooling tower. Thus,it can be seen that the evaluation results should eventually provide for a decision foundation for the construction to be demolished,which should effectively compensate for the inefficient shortages of the currently existing evaluation methods.