基于事故树的空中交通管制员情景意识分析

On the situational awareness of the air flight controller based on the fault tree analysis

为更系统地研究管制员的情景意识,找出导致管制员情景意识丧失的主要因素,运用事故树分析法、采用自上而下的方式对管制员情景意识丧失的原因进行逐层分析,建立管制员情景意识丧失事故树模型。通过进一步计算事故树的最小割集和各基本事件的结构重要度,计算各基本事件的结构重要度系数,对比得出情景意识丧失的各个基本事件的重要程度及各事件之间的关系。结果表明,造成情景意识丧失事故的主要原因是轮班制度不合理、睡眠效率低及对特情不熟悉、飞行冲突预判能力弱。

This paper intends to introduce the Delphi method in its use in finding out the main factors that may lead to the aircraft control events or disasters. Speaking generally,the loss of the aircraft pilots’ situational awareness in the air flight control may come from the following reasons: poor stress management ability;sleepless fatigue;hard-control and regulatory environment,or the poor or insufficient regulatory capacity of the pilots due to the unexpected climatic changes. And,therefore,it would be necessary to make a more systematic research of the controller’s situational awareness and its relation with the unexpected climatic changes in the given situation. As a result of 3 rounds of backto-back investigation,we have established the corresponding indicators of the loss of situational awareness,whereas the causes of the loss of situational awareness of the controllers have been analyzed step by step via the fault tree analysis method and the top-down approach,so as to establish a fault tree model of the air-flight controller’s loss of the situational awareness. Actually,the loss of situational awareness of the air-flight controller should be regarded as the top event,whose constituent elements can be of great variety and multiplicity. It is such a kind of multiplicity of reasons that may lead to his or her loss of situational awareness,and,therefore,such a multiplicity of reasons should be regarded as the intermediate event and the original event to lead to the air flight disasters. And,then,the structural importance coefficients of each basic event has to be calculated and worked out by further calculations of the minimum cut sets of the fault tree and the structural importance of each basic event,so that the importance of each basic event and the relationship among the events that may lead to the loss of the situational awareness of the pilot. And,therefore,the results of our study show that,9 events can be found of primary structural importance and the most important reasons for the loss of situational awareness of controllers. That is,(1) They might be weak-minded to predict the flight situational conflicts;(2) They may not be enough familiar with the extraordinary unexpected circumstances;(3)They may not sleep well enough;(4) Or,they may suffer from insomnia;(5) They may experience over-long lasting duty hours;(6) Or,they might suffer a too long night shift;( 7)They may not get enough recovery hours to get over their tiredness;and/or,(8) They fail to get adequate rest after their business hours.(9) Besides,they may not be well enough to be trained in the aircraft control. Or,they may not be enough familiar with some specifically controlling procedures,or not-skillful enough in dealing with the contradictory events in life-saving.Thus,it can be seen that,in the process of risk control and management of regulatory work,the focus should be put on preventing the events with key structural factors or key coefficients.And,so,the given model can not only help to analyze deeply the loss of the situational awareness of controllers,but also to quantify the influential factors on the loss of the situational awareness,so as to provide a theoretical reference for improving the system security and the air flight controllers’ situational awareness.