摘要
目的评估2021年1月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、世界卫生组织(WHO)各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“各WHO分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果与2020年12月相比,2021年1月全球新增确诊病例降低了3.39%,全球新增死亡病例增长了15.80%,欧洲区新增确诊和死亡病例均最多,非洲区死亡病例增长123.30%,是需要重点关注的地区。全球每新增1000万确诊病例用时整体呈现快速缩短趋势,每新增50万死亡病例用时呈缩短趋势。欧洲区、美洲(北)区每日新增及死亡病例仍占主导地位。俄罗斯是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。结论全球COVID-19疫情发展态势严峻,对于全球重点关注国家要进行持续监测,实时调整入境管控政策,并同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。
Objective To assess the global COVID-19 pandemic in January 2021 and the risk of imported cases to China.Methods According to the daily incidence data of COVID-19 published by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description analysis was conducted for the comprehensive and timely assessment of the global pandemic risk in terms of general overview,comprehensive assessment of the pandemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as comprehensive analysis of the pandemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries of China.The assessment results for each country were expressed as‘countries with global concern’,‘countries with general concern in each WHO region’and‘neighboring countries with special concern’.Results Compared with December,2020,the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases decreased by 3.39%and deaths increased by 15.80%in the world in January 2021.The Europe region had the highest numbers of newly confirmed cases and deaths,while the Africa region had a 123.30%of death increase,indicating close attention needs to be paid to these two regions.Globally,there were trends that it took much less time for a 10 million case increase and less time for a 500000 death increase.The Europe region and the Americas region(north)still contributed most to the global daily case and death incidences.Russia was the country with special concern among the 14 land-bordering countries of China.Conclusion The global COVID-19 pandemic is still serious.It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global concern,adjust entry control policies timely,and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies for information sharing and timely warnings.
作者
房元圣
武洁雯
梁作如
杨昕娉
纪瀚然
张荣娜
赵青
庞眀樊
戚晓鹏
Fang Yuansheng;Wu Jiewen;Liang Zuoru;Yang Xinping;Ji Hanran;Zhang Rongna;Zhao Qing;Pang Mingfan;Qi Xiaopeng(Center for Global Public Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期110-113,共4页
Disease Surveillance
基金
国家重点研发计划(No.2020YFC0846300)。