2014—2018年甘肃省猩红热流行特征及空间聚集性分析

Analysis of epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of scarlet fever in Gansu province form 2014 to 2018

目的分析2014—2018年甘肃省猩红热流行特征及空间聚集性,探索高发聚集区域,为猩红热防控提供理论依据。方法开展2014—2018年甘肃省猩红热发病情况描述流行病学分析,利用趋势面分析猩红热的空间分布趋势,采用空间扫描分析猩红热的聚集区域。结果2014—2018年甘肃省猩红热发病呈缓慢的上升趋势(趋势χ^(2)=195.285,P=0.000),共报告猩红热病例6624例,年平均报告发病率5.08/10万,97.95%的病例发生在15岁以下儿童及青少年,高峰期集中在5—7月和10月—次年1月;三维趋势分析显示,猩红热报告发病总体分布由北向南显著降低,由西向东显著降低;空间扫描结果显示,猩红热报告发病存在空间聚集性,聚集区域为西部和中部的部分县(区),2016年开始聚集区域由中部地区向西部地区转移。结论2014—2018年甘肃省猩红热报告发病有明显的空间聚集性;应将聚集区作为重点防控地区,有针对性地制定相应的防控措施。

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and the epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever,and explore the clustering area with high-incidence in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018,so as to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of local scarlet fever.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was taken to analyze the epidemic of scarlet fever in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018.The spatial distribution trend and the clustering of scarlet fever were analyzed with trend-surface and space scanning analysis.Results The epidemic of scarlet fever showed slow upward trend(trendχ^(2)=195.285,P=0.000)in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018.There were 6624 cases of scarlet fever reported,with annual average incidence rate of 5.08/100000,and 97.95%of the cases were children and adolescents.The peak season concentrated from May to July and from October to January of the next year.The analysis of three-dimensional trend showed that the epidemic of scarlet fever was obviously decreasing from north to south and from west to east.There was spatial clustering of scarlet fever cases in part of counties(districts)in the west and the midland by the space scanning,and the clustering areas removed from midland to the west since 2016.Conclusions The epidemic of scarlet fever shows obvious spatial clustering in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018.The clustering areas should be the key areas for prevention and control,and the targeted measures of prevention and control should be formulated.