季节性供应链零售商补货策略研究——基于牛鞭效应视角

Research on Retailer’s Replenishment Policy in Seasonal Supply Chain——Based on bullwhip effect

通过建立含有季节性自回归移动平均需求过程的供应链,零售商采用最小均方差预测技术预测提前期需求,分析(R,D)、(R,S)、(R,βS)、(R,γO)和(R,γO,βS)五种补货策略下的牛鞭效应.研究结果表明:(R,γO)补货策略是弱化牛鞭效应的最优补货策略,然而(R,γO)补货策略时出现了反牛鞭效应,无法保证供应链的安全供给.实践中当库存量调节系数和订货量调节系数较大时,(R,βS)补货策略能有效弱化牛鞭效应,当库存量调节系数和订货量调节系数较小时,(R,γO,βS)补货策略能有效弱化牛鞭效应;对于(R,βS)和(R,γO,βS)补货策略,牛鞭效应随着库存平滑系数的增大而增大;对于(R,γO)和(R,γO,βS)补货策略,牛鞭效应随着订货平滑系数的增大而增大;对于(R,S)、(R,βS)和(R,γO,βS)补货策略,牛鞭效应随着订货提前期的增大而增大;对于(R,γO)和(R,γO,βS)补货策略,牛鞭效应随着时刻t的增大而增大,但时刻t增大到一定程度时,牛鞭效应值基本不变.

By establishing a supply chain with seasonal autoregressive moving average demand process,where retailers use Minimum Mean Square Error(MMSE in short)prediction technology to forecast lead time demand,the paper analyzes bullwhip effect under five replenishment strategies such as(R,D),(R,S),(R,βS),(R,γO)and(R,γO,βS).The results show that:(R,γO)replenishment strategy is the optimal to weaken the bullwhip effect,but(R,γO)replenishment strategy has anti-bullwhip effect,which can’t guarantee the safe supply.In practice,it will be effective to select the(R,βS)or(R,γO,βS)replenishment policy which can adjust the replenishment smoothness coefficient and order smoothness coefficient to weaken the bullwhip effect and strengthen the anti-bullwhip effect;for the(R,βS)and(R,γO,βS)replenishment policies,the bullwhip effect increases with the increase of inventory smoothness coefficient;for the(R,γO)and(R,γO,βS)replenishment policies,the bullwhip effect increases with the increase of order smoothness coefficient;and for the(R,S),(R,βS)and(R,γO,βS)replenishment policies increased with the increase of lead time;for the(R,γO)and(R,γO,βS)replenishment policies,the bullwhip effect increases with the increase of time t,but when time t increases to a certain extent,the bullwhip effect value basically remains unchanged.