2007—2018年河北省散养肉牛养殖成本与收益分析

Analysis on the cost and income of free-range beef breeding in Hebei Province from 2007 to 2018

为了解河北省散养肉牛养殖成本收益情况及影响因素,研究采用多元线性回归分析法,对2007—2018年河北省散养肉牛养殖成本收益的数据进行实证分析。结果表明:物质与服务费用是总成本的主要构成部分,总产值增速不稳定,导致净利润和成本利润率出现上升和下降的波动趋势,而平均出售价格、仔畜费和人工成本对净利润的影响显著。建议通过完善市场价格监控机制和防疫、保险等政策,创新多样化的肉牛养殖模式,进一步降低河北省散养肉牛养殖成本,稳定养殖收益。

In order to understand the cost and income situation and influencing factors of free-range beef breeding in Hebei Province, multivariate linear regression analysis method was used to analyze the cost-benefit data of free-range beef cattle breeding cost and income from 2007 to 2018. The results showed that the material and service cost was the main component of total cost, and the growth rate of total output value was unstable, which lead to the fluctuation trend of the net profit and the cost profit margin, and the average selling price, the livestock fee and the labor cost had a significant impact on the net profit. It is suggested that the market price monitoring mechanism and the policies of epidemic prevention and insurance should be improved to innovate diversified beef cattle breeding models, further reduce the cost of free-range beef cattle breeding in Hebei Province and stabilize the breeding income.