基于直接法的倾倒式危岩体可靠度分析

Reliability Analysis of Toppling Unstable Rock Based on Direct Method

危岩体稳定性评价方法一直是地质灾害中非常重要的研究内容。基于可靠度理论,运用直接法生成随机参数,建立倾倒式危岩体的可靠度计算方法,并结合正交试验设计和响应面试验设计分析各因素的参数敏感性。研究结果表明:重心至倾覆点的水平距离与质量为影响危岩体可靠度的主导因素,二者的参数变异性对失稳概率的影响受均值控制,参数均值取值越大,低变异性参数会高估危岩体失稳概率,致使对危岩体的可靠度评价过于保守。所得结论为倾倒式危岩体可靠度分析研究提供了参考依据。

The evaluation method of the stability of unstable rock is always a very important research in geological disaster.Based on the reliability theory,the direct method is used to generate random parameters,and the reliability calculation method of toppling unstable rock body is established.The results show that the horizontal distance and weight from the center of gravity to the tipping point are the main factors affecting the reliability of the unstable rock.The influence of the parameter variability of the two factors on the probability of instability is controlled by the mean value.The larger the value of the parameter mean value is,the lower the variability parameter will overestimate the probability of instability of the unstable rock,resulting in the over conservative reliability evaluation of the unstable rock.The conclusion could be used as a reference for the reliability analysis of the toppling unstable rock.