1956-2016年大通河温度和降水及其与径流变化的关系

Temperature and Precipitation and Their Relationship with Runoff Change in Datong River from 1956 to 2016

大通河流域位于祁连山南坡,是青海省东北部和甘肃西部重要的地表水源地,明晰大通河径流变化规律对其下游水资源开发利用和管理具有重大的意义。基于1956—2016年大通河尕日得、青石嘴和享堂水文站径流数据及其附近区域7个气象基站的气象数据,采用趋势分析、MK分析、小波分析及相关分析等数理统计方法,研究大通河径流变化及其与气温和降水的关系。结果表明:(1) 1956—2016年大通河流域气候呈现暖湿化趋势,气温变化速率为0.22℃/(10 a)(p<0.01),降水变化速率为26.78 mm/(10 a)(p<0.01);(2)尕日得和青石嘴站径流量分别以0.1亿m^(3)/(10 a),0.3亿m^(3)/(10 a)的速率上升,享堂站以-0.87亿m^(3)/(10 a)(p<0.05)的速率下降,三站均存在22 a尺度的主周期变化,分别在2010年、2001年、2000年发生突变;(3) 3个水文站径流量与降水量均呈显著正相关关系。总的来看降水是其主要补给来源;跨流域调水是引起大通河径流减小的主要人为因素。

Datong River valley which is located in the south slope of Qilian Mountains, is an important water source area for the northeast Qinghai Province and the western Gansu Province. It is of great significance to the development, utilization and management of the downstream water resources to clarify the change rule of Datong river runoff. Based on the runoff data of Garyide, Qingshizui and Xiangtang hydrological stations and meteorological data of 7 meteorological base stations nearby from 1956 to 2016, the trend analysis method, MK analysis, wavelet analysis and correlation analysis were used to study the runoff change and its relationship with temperature and precipitation in Datong River. The results show that:(1) a warm and humid climate of Datong river valley revealed from 1956 to 2016 with the temperature change rate of 0.22℃/decade(p<0.01) and the precipitation change rate of 26.78 mm/decade(p<0.01);(2) the runoff of Garyide and Qingshizui station increased at a rate of 10 million m^(3)/decade and 30 million m^(3)/decade, respectively, while the runoff of the Xiangtang station decreased at a rate of-87 million m^(3)/decade(p< 0.05). 22-year scale major periodic change occurred in the stations, and abrupt change was found in 2010, 2001 and 2000, respectively;(3)there was a significant positive correlation between runoff and precipitation in the three hydrological stations. In general, precipitation is the main supply source;inter-basin water transfer is the main human factor causinh the decrease of runoff in Datong River.