1980年代以来气候变化对吉林省玉米产量的影响

Impacts of Climate Change on Corn Yield in Jilin Province Since 1980s

为了研究气候变化对吉林省玉米产量的影响,基于吉林省1980-2017年气象和农业数据,运用多种统计方法对吉林省气候、玉米产量变化特征进行了分析,并运用多元线性回归方法确立了产量与气候因子的相关模型。结果表明:研究期内吉林省年均气温显著上升,年均降水量和年均日照时数有所减少,但趋势不显著;玉米实际产量和趋势产量均呈明显上升趋势,说明技术进步、社会经济发展促使粮食单产产量增加作用显著;气象产量差异较大,说明气候因素对吉林省玉米产量的影响较大;相对产量与气象产量变化趋势一致,气候丰年9个,气候歉年3个,其他为正常年份;气象产量与年均气温、年均降水量、年均日照时数之间呈现正相关,根据拟合回归模型,未来10年吉林省玉米产量呈下降趋势。吉林省气候总体呈现以“气温明显升高,降水量、日照时数减少”为特征的暖干化趋势将制约玉米产量的提高。

In order to study the impact of climate change on corn yield in Jilin Province,based on the meteorological and agricultural data of Jilin Province from 1980 to 2017,we analyzed the characteristics of climate and corn yield changes in Jilin Province by using a variety of statistical methods,and established the correlation model between yield and climate factors by multiple linear regression method.The results showed that during the study period,the annual average temperature increased significantly,the annual average precipitation and sunshine hours decreased,but the trend was not significant;the actual yield and trend yield of corn showed an obvious upward trend,which showed that the technical progress and social and economic development had the significant effect on the increase of grain yield per unit area;the meteorological yield was quite different,indicating that climate factors had the impact on corn yield in Jilin Province;the change trend of relative yield was consistent with that of meteorological yield,with 9 climate rich years,3 poor climate years,and the others were normal years;the meteorological yield was positively correlated with the annual average temperature,annual average precipitation and sunshine hours.According to the fitting regression model,the corn yield showed a downward trend in the next 10 years.The climate in Jilin Province is characterized by the pattern of the obvious increase of temperature,reduction of the precipitation and sunshine hours,which will restrict the increase of corn yield.