基于焦耳定律的公共危机事件网络舆情热度模型研究

The Internet Public Opinion Hot-degree Model of Public Crisis Events Based on Joule’s Law

【目的/意义】网络舆情成为影响政府决策和社会稳定的重要因素,对公共危机事件网络舆情热度的量化分析有助于政府部门及时、有效地研判舆情态势。【方法/过程】本文从定性角度论证了焦耳定律的物理学思维与公共危机事件网络舆情热度生成机理之间存在共同遵循的逻辑判断,基于焦耳定律中各变量的逻辑关系,从事件作用量、网民作用量、媒体作用量、政府作用量以及持续时间多维度构建了网络舆情热度量化模型。【结果/结论】以《2018年中国互联网舆论分析报告》中舆情热度排名前十位的公共危机事件作为案例,运用本研究所构建的模型计算出各案例的网络舆情热度值,与上述报告的结果以及基于灰色关联分析法的测算结果在热度排名、热度区间两方面进行比较分析,验证了该模型具有合理性、有效性和准确性。【创新/局限】本研究将物理学思维运用到解决管理学问题,为舆情研究提供了一种全新的研究视角,以期为政府有效评价网络舆情现实状况提供理论支持和测算依据。

【Purpose/significance】Public opinion has become an important factor affecting government decision-making and social stability. The quantitative analysis of public opinion hot-degree of public crisis events is helpful for government departments to judge public opinion situation timely and effectively.【Method/process】We found that the formation mechanism of Internet public opinion hot-degree of public crisis events is similar to the principle of thermal effect of electric current, and demonstrate the rationality of constructing the Internet public opinion hot-degree model based on Joule’s law from the perspective of qualitative analysis. Then, we construct the measurement model of Internet public opinion hot-degree from five dimensions: emergencies, netizens, media, government and duration based on logical relations of variables in Joule’s Law.【Result/conclusion】Taking the top ten public crisis events in the "China Internet Public Opinion Analysis Report 2018" as research cases, applying the model constructed in this study, we calculate and rank the Internet public opinion hot-degree value of each case, which is compared respectively with the ranking and interval of Internet public opinion hot-degree of each case in the above official report and calculating results based on Grey Relational Analysis.The above comparative analysis results verify that the Internet public opinion hot-degree model based on Joule’s law is reasonable, feasible and accurate.【Innovation/limitation】In this paper, the physical thought is applied to solve the management issues, which provides a new research perspective for public opinion research. This study aims to provide theoretical support and measurement basis for the government to effectively evaluate the reality of Internet public opinion.