高铁的需求替代效应评估:基于全局网络的研究

An Evaluation on the Demand Substitution Effect of High-speed Rail:Based on Nationwide Network

本文利用GIS计算了"八纵八横"高铁网络建成后高铁对航空和公路的需求替代效应,并评估了高铁网络对出行效率和环境的影响。研究结果表明,高铁对公路和航空会形成明显的替代效应,有31.65%的公路市场份额和12%的航空市场份额被高铁所替代。高铁的弹性系数大于航空和公路的弹性系数,且只有高铁的弹性系数大于1。高铁网络的建设也引发了"截弯取直"效应。航空和公路在客运量、周转量的减少部分中分别有50.4%和46.1%归因于"截弯取直"效应。此外,高铁能够提升出行效率,降低运营阶段交通工具的碳排放总量。与之前就单条高铁线路或局部区域网络的研究不同,本研究以包含我国大陆地区337个地级市的全局网络为研究对象,并综合考虑了包括航空、公路、高铁在内的多式交通网络,计算结果更符合现实条件。

This paper uses GIS to calculate the demand substitution effect of high-speed rail on aviation and highway after the completion of the"eight vertical and eight horizontal"high-speed rail network,and to quantitatively evaluate the impact of high-speed rail network on travel efficiency and environmental benefits.The results show that high-speed rail has a significant substitution effect on highway and aviation,replacing 31.65%of the road market share and 12%of the aviation market share.The elastic coefficient of high-speed rail is much larger than the that of aviation and highway,and is the only one greater than 1.More importantly,the construction of the high-speed rail network will trigger the effect of"cut-off".Among aviation and highway,50.4%of the reduced passenger volume and 46.1%of the reduced turnover volume are attributed to the"cut-off"effect.High-speed rail can also improve travel efficiency and enhance environmental benefits by reducing the total carbon emissions in the operational stage.Different from previous studies on single high-speed rail lines or local areas,this study takes the global network between 337 prefecture-level cities in China's Mainland as the research object and considered the multi-modal transportation network including aviation,highways,and high-speed rail.Therefore,the results are more realistic.