高速铁路运营安全评价指标权重确定模型研究

A Weight Determination Model for High-speed Railway Operation Safety Evaluation Index

通过分析总结现阶段铁路运营安全评价指标权重不同确定方法的优缺点,基于模糊数学理论,结合层次分析法、熵权法、相关性标准权重法(CRITIC),提出一种适用于高速铁路运营安全评价指标权重确定模型——主客观权重确定(analytic hierarchy process and triangular fuzzy number and entropy weight method and CRITIC method,ATEC)模型。引入格拉布斯(Grubbs)检验与偏好因子,优化权重确定过程,提高结果的科学性和可靠性,为安全评价提供一种可行的新思路。以某型高速动车组为例,建立制动系统安全评价指标体系,并确定评价指标权重。

Through the analysis and summary of the advantages and disadvantages of the index weight determination method in the current railway operation safety evaluation index,on the basis of fuzzy mathematics theory,combined with AHP(analytic hierarchy process),entropy weight method,CRITIC(correlation standard weight method),this paper proposes ATEC(analytic hierarchy process and triangular fuzzy number and entropy weight method and CRIT⁃IC method)model,which is suitable for high-speed railway operation safety evaluation index.Grubbs test and prefer⁃ence factor are introduced to optimize the determination process of weight,which improves the scientificity and reli⁃ability of the results.Taking an high-speed EMU as an example,the safety evaluation index system of braking system is established,and the weight is determined,which provides a feasible new idea for safety evaluation.