基于MaxEnt生态位模型软件对云南柠檬适宜种植区预测

Prediction of Suitable Planting Area of Citrus Limon in Yunnan Based on MaxEnt Niche Model Software

制定科学、精细的柠檬适宜种植区划是云南柠檬产业规模化健康发展的先决条件.应用MaxEnt生态位模型软件,基于世界地理分布记录,划分出柠檬在云南的适宜种植区以及确定影响柠檬分布的最主要环境因子.结果表明:云南的柠檬最适宜种植区面积大约为8826.25km^(2),集中分布于怒江、澜沧江、元江-红河三大水系流域内的低海拔地区,其中德宏、临沧、普洱和红河的最适宜种植区面积最大,适合进行规模化的柠檬种植.影响柠檬分布概率环境限制因子是最冷月份平均温度、年平均温度、最暖季度平均雨量和昼夜温差与年温差比值.本研究首次利用MaxEnt模型分析预测了柠檬在云南的适生区域,对适生区的分布做出精确划分,明确了影响柠檬分布的主要气候因子,分析结果能够为云南省柠檬种植提供科学指导和合理规划.

To formulate scientific and fine planting regionalization is a prerequisite for the development of lemon industry in Yunnan.In this study,MaxEnt niche model software was used to divide the suitable planting areas of lemon in Yunnan and determine the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution of lemon based on the records of geographical distribution in the world.The results show that the most suitable planting area of lemon in Yunnan is about 8826.25 km^(2),which is mainly distributed in the low altitude areas of Nujiang River,Lancang River and Yuanjiang Red River Basin.Among them,Dehong,Lincang,Pu’er and Honghe are the most suitable planting areas,which are suitable for large-scale lemon planting.The environmental limiting factors affecting the probability of lemon distribution are the average temperature in the coldest month,the average annual temperature,the average rainfall in the warmest quarter,and the ratio of diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference.In this study,MaxEnt model was used to analyze and predict the suitable growing areas of lemon in Yunnan Province for the first time.The distribution of suitable areas was accurately divided,and the main climatic factors affecting citrus distribution were identified.The analysis results provide scientific guidance and reasonable planning for citrus planting in Yunnan.