中国玉米供求趋势

The supply and demand trend of corn in China

玉米是我国极其重要的农产品,涉及饲料养殖、食品加工、农产品深加工等多个产业,与稻谷、小麦等谷物存在广泛的替代关系和价格传导机制,玉米供求变化对维护国家粮食安全、稳定粮食市场和供应等影响重大。随着近年来我国玉米供求形势出现逆转,产不足需恐成常态,有必要对玉米中长期供求形势进行分析判断,为国家采取针对性措施提供参考。我们从过去10年玉米供求情况出发,对我国玉米消费结构变化和国内玉米增产潜力进行预测,认为未来10年我国将保持3500~4500万t的玉米常态化缺口。

Corn is an extremely important agricultural product in China,which involves many industries such as feed breeding,food processing and agricultural product deep processing,and has a wide range of substitution relationship and price transmission mechanism with grains such as rice and wheat.The change of corn supply and demand has a significant impact on maintaining national food security and stabilizing food market and supply.With the reversal of corn supply and demand in China in recent years,the shortage of corn production may become normal.It is necessary to analyze and judge the medium and long term supply and demand situation of corn,so as to provide reference for the country to take targeted measures.Based on the situation of corn supply and demand in the past 10 years,we forecast the change of corn consumption structure and the potential increase of corn production in China.It is believed that China will maintain a normal gap of 35 million to 45 million tons of corn in the next 10 years.