基于电力系统承载力指标的新能源装机规划方法

RenewableEnergy Capacity Planning Based on Carrying Capacity Indicators of Power System

根据电力系统承载能力规划新能源装机,确保源网荷协调发展是实现新能源健康发展的根本途径。首先分析了新能源出力的概率分布和累积电量分布,根据电力系统经济调度理论分析新能源消纳机理,提出利用新能源消纳系数计算新能源利用率的消纳系数法,并与时序仿真法进行对比,分析了消纳系数法的计算误差和适用范围。在此基础上,提出2个能够真实反映电力系统新能源承载能力的普遍指标:新能源消纳系数和新能源承载系数。以消纳系数法为基础建立这2个指标与新能源装机、负荷、调峰率、上备用率之间的关系,提出基于新能源承载力指标的新能源装机规划方法,并分析了负荷、负荷率、常规机组调峰率、上备用率等因素对电网能接纳的新能源装机的影响,提出提升电力系统新能源承载能力的措施。

In order to match the carrying capacity of power system and ensure the coordinated development of source-grid-load,firstly, the statistical characteristics of renewable energy(RE) output and the mechanism of RE accommodation are analyzed. Then a newaccommodation coefficient methodaccording to the theory of power system economic dispatch is proposed to analyze the utilization rate of RE. Also the calculation error and suitable range of this method are analyzed in contrast to the traditional timing simulation. On this basis, two common indicators, RE accommodation coefficient and RE carrying capacity coefficient, are put forward which reflect the real carrying capacity of renewable energy in the power system. Secondly, the relations between the two indicators and the capacity of renewable energy, the load, the peak shaving rate and the upper reserve rate of the power system are revealed and the impacts of these key factors of the power systemon RE capacity are also analyzed. Finally, a new method of RE Capacity planning based on carrying capacity indicators of power system is proposed which makes great significance to RE capacity planning and accommodation.