现实可行且成本可负担的中国电力低碳转型路径

Feasible and affordable pathways to low-carbon power transition in China

电力行业的脱碳对于实现《巴黎协定》的减排目标至关重要,但同时也面临着巨大的困难和挑战,具有很强的复杂性和不确定性。为了给出现实可行且成本可负担的电力低碳转型路径,建立了具有足够时空分辨率和技术准确度的“自下而上”能源系统模型来模拟与优化中国电力行业的未来发展路径。通过设置3种典型情景(基准情景、2℃情景和1.5℃情景),分析电力脱碳技术路径以及相应的实施方案。结果表明,若按照当前的电力发展趋势,将不能实现《巴黎协定》规定的2℃/1.5℃目标,必须在当前基础上加大可再生能源扩张、加快燃煤电厂退出以及大规模部署碳捕集技术。未来30 a,风电和光伏发电需要逐渐转变为主力电源,年均装机增速达到当前水平的2~4倍。燃煤机组的容量需要逐渐减少,部分机组甚至要提前退役,这将导致燃煤机组的平均寿命降低0.42~1.93 a,对应1050亿元~6550亿元的搁浅成本。碳捕集技术需要大规模应用,尤其是煤炭生物质掺烧再加碳捕集装置的技术,到2050年,电力行业的二氧化碳年捕集量达到8.9亿t~10.8亿t。为了保障上述转型路径的实现,需要处理好电网安全稳定运行、煤电有序退出、碳捕集技术的部署以及转型投资成本的问题。通过加大储能等先进技术研发力度、建立存量煤电有序退出机制、加快碳捕集相关技术的研发与应用示范以及建立和完善绿色投融资机制等措施,可以有效解决这些问题。应对气候变化是全人类共同的责任,应当从现在起就超前部署相关措施和政策,以实现2℃/1.5℃目标下的中国电力低碳转型。

Decarbonization of power sector is critical for the emission reduction target of Paris Agreement targets.However,it also faces enormous difficulties and challenges,with strong complexity and uncertainty.In order to explore feasible and affordable decarbonization pathways of China′s power sector,a bottom-up energy system model with high spatiotemporal resolution and technical accuracy was built to simulate and optimize the development pathways.Three typical scenarios(Business as usual scenario,2℃scenario and 1.5℃scenario)were set to analyze the decarbonization pathways and the corresponding implementation plan.The results indicate that the 2℃/1.5℃tar⁃gets stipulated in Paris Agreement cannot be realized based on the current development trend,which can only be achieved with faster ex⁃pansion of renewable energy,quicker phase-out of coal-fired power plants as well as the large-scale deployment of carbon capture tech⁃nologies.In the next 30 years,wind and solar power should gradually become the majority of power supply.The annual incremental in⁃stalled capacity should reach 2-4 times of the current level.The capacity of coal-fired power plants needs to shrink gradually and some of them even need to be prematurely decommissioned,which will reduce the average lifetime of coal-fired units by 0.42 to 1.93 years,transla⁃ting to the stranded cost of 105 billion to 655 billion yuan.Carbon capture technologies need to be largely deployed,especially the coal-bi⁃omass co-firing power plants with carbon capture devices.By 2050,the annual captured carbon dioxide should reach 0.89 Gt to 1.08 Gt.In order to guarantee the low-carbon transition progress,some important issues should be dealt with,including power grid security and stabili⁃ty,orderly coal power phase-out,the deployment of carbon capture technologies and transition cost.These issues could be effectively solved by enhancing the research and development of advanced technologies such as energy storage,establishing an orderly phase-out mechanism for coal-fired power plants,accelerating the demonstration of carbon capture and storage technologies and establishing the green investment and financing mechanism.Tackling climate change is the common responsibility of all mankind.Measures and policies should be deployed ahead of time from now on so as to achieve the decarbonization of China′s power sector under the 2℃/1.5℃targets.