中国西南部分地区地震灾害恢复力时空变化特征研究

Spatio-temporal Change of Seismic Resilience in Southwest China

从自然、社会和经济三个维度遴选了12个指标,构建地震灾害恢复力的综合评价指标体系,综合运用熵权法与模糊逻辑等方法,评价西南四省(四川、云南、贵州、重庆)的地震灾害恢复力,并分析其时空变化特征及主要影响因素。结果表明:2006-2016年,西南四省大部分地区地震灾害恢复力呈提升趋势,且恢复力水平总体随城市级别的增大而增大,呈现:特大型城市>大城市>中等城市>小城市,其中恢复力较强区域主要集中于成渝经济区;研究区内,GDP、人均GDP、卫生技术人员和公路密度等因素对地震灾害恢复力强弱发挥着极为重要的作用,且不同类型城市的主控因素存在差异。

Earthquake is one of the major hazards in Southwest China,and research on seismic resilience is of great significance for mitigating the impacts of earthquakes.Based on three dimensions(nature,society,and economy),12 indicators were selected to construct an integrated evaluation index system,to assess the seismic resilience in Southwest China from 2006 to 2016.The fuzzy logic and entropy weight method were applied to estimate the seismic resilience in Southwest China;the linear trend method,the spatial autocorrelation analysis method,and grey relational grade method,were used to explore its spatio-temporal change and major influential factors.The results show that the seismic resilience generally increased in Southwest China from 2006 to 2016.The overall distribution of seismic resilience in Southwest China is in the order of mega cities>large cities>medium-sized cities>small cities,and the regions with strong seismic resilience in Southwest China are mainly located in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.From the perspective of driving factors,GDP,GDP per capita,medical technical personnel and road density play a major role in seismic resilience.Besides,the main influencing factors are different in different types of cities.