供应链金融模式下中小企业信用风险评估——基于汽车制造业数据分析

Credit Risk Evaluation of SMEs Under the Mode of Supply Chain Finance--Analysis Based on Sample Data of Automobile Manufacturing Industry

供应链金融已成为新时代下全面经济体制改革以及推进“放管服”服务中缓解中小企业融资约束、支持民营经济健康发展的重要保障。本文分析了影响汽车制造业供应链中汽车零部件制造中小企业信用风险的因素,进而构建中小企业在供应链融资模式下信用风险评价指标体系;选取汽车制造业62家上市公司为样本,通过因子分析和Logistic回归,运用核心企业的偿债能力、盈利能力及相关因子建立了中小企业信用风险评估模型。实证结果表明,该模型在预测汽车制造业中小企业融资风险方面准确性较高,为商业银行、供应链核心企业及中小企业改善供应链融资困境提供建议。

Supply chain finance has become an important guarantee for alleviating the financing constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises and supporting the healthy development of the private economy in the comprehensive economic system reform and the promotion of“decentralization,regulation and service”services in the new era.This paper analyzes the factors that affect the credit risk of small and medium-sized automobile manufacturing enterprises in the supply chain of the automobile manufacturing industry,and then establishes a credit risk evaluation index system for small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain financing mode;62 listed companies in the automobile manufacturing industry are selected as samples and pass factors analyze and logistic regression,using the solvency,profitability and related factors of core enterprises to establish a credit risk assessment model for SMEs.The empirical results show that the model is highly accurate in predicting the financing risks of SMEs in the automobile manufacturing industry,and provide suggestions for commercial banks,core supply chain companies and SMEs to improve their supply chain financing difficulties.