宾阳县早稻高温热害年际变化特点及对产量影响

The Interannual Variation Characteristics of High Temperature and Heat Damage of Early Rice in Binyang County and its Influence on Yield

根据宾阳国家气象观测站1981—2019年逐日平均气温、逐日最高气温气象数据以及2007—2018年宾阳县早稻单产数据,采用一元线性回归、M-K突变性检验等方法研究辖区早稻高温热害年际变化特点、突变期及对产量的影响,为早稻生产提供防灾减灾决策依据。结果表明:(1)1981—2019年宾阳早稻高温热害次数、连续天数、灾害强度均呈现波动性增长趋势,进入21世纪00年代后增长趋势明显;(2)早稻高温热害总次数在1981年、2010年发生突变增多趋势;(3)2007—2018年热害频次与产量大体上呈现反向增减趋势。

Based on the daily average temperature and daily maximum temperature data from Binyang National Meteorological Observatory from 1981 to 2019 and the early rice yield data from 2007 to 2018 in Binyang County,the methods of unary linear regression and MK mutation test were used to study the high temperature and heat damage of early rice in the jurisdiction The characteristics of inter-annual change,the period of mutation and the impact on yield provide the basis for disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making for early rice production.The results showed that:(1)The number of high temperature heat damages,the number of consecutive days,and the disaster intensity of Binyang early rice from 1981 to 2019 showed a fluctuating growth trend,and the increase trend was obvious after the 2000s;(2)The total number of high temperature heat damages of early rice was in the 2000s.In 1981 and 2010,there was a trend of sudden increase and increase;(3)The frequency of heat damage and output from 2007 to 2018 showed a trend of reverse increase and decrease.