京津冀“以电代煤”替代大气污染物排放清单

Emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants replaced by“coal-to-electricity”policy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

本研究建立了基于人工神经网络的民用散煤燃用量估算模型,得到了京津冀地区“以电代煤”替代民用散煤大气污染物排放清单.结果表明:截止到2018年,京津冀地区“以电代煤”替代散煤用户约259万户,每年可减少散煤燃烧约706.6万t,减少PM2.5、NOx、SO2的排放量分别约为2.81,0.76,2.17万t.其中,北京市和天津市实施效果较为明显,占京津冀地区“以电代煤”散煤替代总量的62.01%和22.82%.基于调研数据得到京津冀各市燃煤量月分布系数,1月份分布系数最大,燃煤量占比为27%~40%.

A residential coal consumption estimation model was established based on artificial neural network,an emission inventory of air pollutants from the coal-to-electricity policy,a residential coal replacement program,in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region was obtained.The results showed that there had been 2.59 million households that replaced coal with electricity in the BTH region by the end of 2018,which reduced about 7.07 million tons of residential coal,and reduced the emissions of PM2.5、NOx、SO2 by 28092,7647 and 21743 tons respectively according to our model.Beijing and Tianjin had achieved more substantial effects and accounted for 62.01%and 22.82%of the total fuel source switch from coal to electricity in the BTH region.Based on the survey data,this study also established the monthly distribution coefficient of coal consumption in BTH cities,and found that the January consumption was largest,which accounted for 27%~40%of the total annual coal consumption.