中国大气汞排放变化的社会经济影响因素

Socioeconomic factors influencing atmospheric mercury emission changes in China

基于投入产出模型,从生产和最终需求角度计算了1997~2017年中国大气汞排放量;并结合结构分解分析方法,定量分析了各种社会经济因素对大气汞排放变化的相对贡献.结果表明:生产端大气汞排放较多的行业主要是水泥、石灰和石膏制造业(135t)、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业(86t)等重工业;消费端对大气汞排放贡献较多的行业主要是建筑业(219t)、汽车制造业(16t)等.各种社会经济因素对不同排放源和不同行业的相对贡献存在差异.人均最终需求水平提高是大气汞排放增加的最大驱动因素,其中,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,电力、热力的生产和供应业,水泥、石灰和石膏制造业是其推动排放增加的主要行业.排放强度降低是大气汞排放减少的最大驱动因素,对有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,电力、热力的生产和供应业,水泥、石灰和石膏制造业的减排贡献最大.生产结构、最终需求行业结构和最终需求类别结构变化导致大气汞排放略有增加,但1997~2017年间因这3种结构性因素变化而减少汞排放的排放源和行业数量增多.根据研究结果,本文从生产全过程管控、优化社会经济结构等角度提出相关政策建议.

Atmospheric mercury emissions in China during 1997~2017 were calculated by the input-output model from the production and final demand perspectives.Combined with structural decomposition analysis,the relative contributions of socioeconomic factors to atmospheric mercury emissions were also analyzed.The results showed that two big production side sectors discharging large amounts of atmospheric mercury emissions were cement and cement asbestos(135t)and nonferrous metal smelting and processing(86t).On the consumption side,the two major sectors with large atmospheric mercury emissions were mainly construction(219t)and motor vehicles(16t).The relative contributions of socioeconomic factors were different across emission sources and sectors.The increase in per capita final demand volume was the dominant factor driving atmospheric mercury emissions,where nonferrous metal smelting and processing,electricity and heat,cement and cement asbestos were the main sectors responsible for the increasing emissions.The decline in mercury emission intensity was the main factor mitigating atmospheric mercury emissions,where nonferrous metal smelting and processing,electricity and heat,cement and cement asbestos were also the main sectors for the reductions.In this period,the changes in the production structure,final demand sectoral structure,and final demand category structure had led to a slight increase in atmospheric mercury emissions.However,in the same period,the number of emission sources and sectors with a decrease in mercury emissions,due to changes in these three structural factors,had also increased.Based on these results,several relevant policy recommendations were proposed from the perspectives of production-chain-wide control and socioeconomic structure optimization.