中国与西亚国家双边贸易效率研究——根据随机前沿引力模型

An Empirical Study on the Efficiency of China-West Asia Bilateral Trade under the Belt and Road Initiative——Based on stochastic frontal gravity model

根据2002~2017年中国与西亚十四国的相关贸易数据,利用随机前沿引力模型对中国与西亚国家的贸易效率、潜力及影响因素进行研究的结果表明,人均GDP、政治稳定性、货币自由度和贸易自由度对贸易效率有显著正向影响;地理距离与贸易效率成负相关;人口对贸易效率的影响因国家的不同而存在差异性;中国与西亚国家的实际贸易水平与前沿贸易水平尚存在差距,具有较大的提升空间。因此,中国应该深化与西亚国家在运输通道和基础设施建设方面的合作;加快自贸区谈判进程和增强人民币的贸易结算功能;构建多层次政府间及非政府间沟通机制。

Based on the relevant trade data of China and 14 countries in West Asia from 2002 to 2017,this paper uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to study the efficiency,potential and influencing factors of trade between China and West Asia countries.The research results show that GDP per capita,political stability,currency freedom,and trade freedom have significant positive effects on trade efficiency.Geographic distance is negatively correlated with trade efficiency.The impact of population on trade efficiency varies from country to country.There is still a gap between the actual level of bilateral trade and the frontier level of bilateral trade.Based on the results of the above research,this article puts forward suggestions for increasing the trade efficiency between China and West Asian countries and unlocking trade potential from three aspects:cooperation in the construction of transport facilities,free trade negotiations and RMB settlement,and the establishment of a multilevel communication mechanism.