基于ISM和ANP的水库水华发生影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Reservoir Algal Bloom Based on ISM and ANP

为提高水库水华发生预警能力,从水华形成机理着手,引入营养盐条件、水动力条件、光热条件和浮游植物生长状况,建立水库水华发生影响因素模型。首先,基于文献研究,建立水库水华发生影响因素体系,共包含10个指标;其次,利用解释结构模型(ISM)建立水库水华发生影响因素递阶结构模型;最后采用网络层次分析法(ANP)构建权重模型,并借助Super Decision(SD)软件求解。结果表明:叶绿素a浓度、悬浮物浓度、磷浓度、氮浓度、铁等微量盐浓度、水流流速、温度和溶解氧为表层直接影响因素,光照和风速为深层根本影响因素;重要度排序为:叶绿素a浓度、悬浮物浓度、磷浓度、水流流速、氮浓度和溶解氧。

In order to improve the early warning ability of reservoir algal bloom,based on the analysis of the mechanism of the algal bloom,a model of influencing factors for reservoir algal bloom was established by introducing nutrient conditions,hydrodynamic conditions,photothermal conditions and phytoplankton growth conditions.Firstly,an influencing factor system for the occurrence of reservoir algal bloom was established based on the literature research,which included 10 indexes in total.Secondly,a hierarchical structure model of influencing factors of reservoir algal bloom was established by using the interpreted structural mode(ISM).Finally,a weight model of influencing factors for reservoir algal bloom was established by using the analytic network process(ANP)method,and Super Decision(SD)software was used to solve the model.The results showed that the concentration of chlorophyll a,suspended solid,phosphorus concentration,nitrogen concentration,other trace salt concentration,water flow velocity,temperature and dissolved oxygen were the surface-level direct influencing factors,while the light and speed of wind were the deep-level fundamental influencing factors.The order of importance rank as follows:chlorophyll a,suspended solid,phosphorus concentration,water flow velocity,nitrogen concentration and dissolved oxygen concentration.