基于N-K模型的果蔬冷链物流安全风险耦合研究

Security Risks Coupling of Fruit and Vegetable Cold Chain Logistics Based on N-K Model

为了明确果蔬冷链物流安全风险管理中的风险概率变化情况,对影响果蔬冷链物流安全的人为、管理、设备、技术、环境5类因素进行了风险耦合分析。将风险因素间的耦合划分为单因素、双因素及多因素3类组合,计算各种因素组合形式下的风险耦合概率,采用N-K模型量化其耦合风险值。结果表明:随着风险耦合因素的增多,耦合风险值增大;在局部耦合中,3因素耦合导致系统发生不安全事件的可能性明显升高;管理-设备因素与其他因素耦合比其余双因素与其他因素耦合导致不安全事件发生的风险概率更大。基于此,建议在果蔬冷链物流的安全风险管理中,尽量控制管理、设备及技术等关键影响因素的独立作用并尽可能避免具有较强耦合性的耦合形式的发生,从源头上进行风险管控。

In order to clarify the change of risk probability in the safety risk management of fruit and vegetable cold chain logistics,the risk coupling analysis was carried out on five factors which affect the safety of fruit and vegetable cold chain logistics,including human,management,equipment,technology and environment.The coupling of risk factors was divided into three combination types:single factor,double factors and multiple factors.Then the probability of different risk-coupling form was calculated,and an N-K model was built to quantify the coupling risk value.The results showed that:with the increase of risk coupling factors,the coupling risk value increased;the 3-factor coupling lead to the increase of the possibility of unsafe events in the system in local coupling;the coupling of managementequipment factors and other factors had a greater risk of causing unsafe incidents than the coupling of other two types of factors and other factors.Therefore,it is suggested that in risk management of fruit and vegetable cold chain logistics,the independent role of key factors such as management,equipment and technology should be controlled and the coupling form with strong coupling should be avoided as far as possible,and risk control should be carried out from the source.