“一带一路”沿线国家“五通”动态数列测度及评价研究

“Five-Connectivity”Dynamic Sequence Level of Countries along the“One Belt and One Road”and Its Assessment

本文在确立“一带一路”沿线国家“五通”动态数列水平概念基点的基础上,以2012-2018年“一带一路”沿线64个国家为样本,立足于“五通”内容,构建其动态数列水平指标体系。运用熵值法模型测度“一带一路”沿线国家“五通”动态数列水平。绝大多数沿线国家“五通”动态数列水平呈波动稳定、波动上升态势,并因地理地缘的原因存在区域及国家异质性,因沿线国家经济发展水平的差异存在两极分化的特点;整体而言,“一带一路”倡议发展处于低水平。资金融通和设施联通是影响沿线国家“五通”动态数列水平的主要因素,我国在未来应着力于与沿线各国签订货币互换协议,携手沿线国家继续扩大建设跨境铁路、通信设施和油气通道等推进“一带一路”倡议的实施。

On the basis of establishing the concept of“One Belt and One Road”dynamic sequence level,this article takes 64 countries along the“One Belt and One Road”from 2012 to 2018 as samples.Based on the contents of the“Five-Connectivity”,the“Five-Connectivity”dynamic sequence level index system was constructed and the entropy value model was used to measure the dynamic series level of the“Five Connectivity”of countries along the“One Belt and One Road.”The“One Belt and One Road”dynamic sequence level of most countries along the route shows stable fluctuations and rising fluctuations,and there are regional and national heterogeneities due to geographic reasons.The differences in the economic development levels of the countries along the route are characterized by polarization;on the whole,the development of the“Belt and Road”initiative is at a low level.Financial and facility connectivity are the main factors affecting the“One Belt and One Road”dynamic sequence level.In the future,our country should focus on signing currency swap agreements with countries along the route,join hands with countries along the route to continue expanding the construction of cross-border railways,communication facilities,and oil channels,etc.and promote the implementation of the“Belt and Road”initiative.