对太阳能热发电走向成功之路的思考

INSIGHTS INTO THE SUCCESS OF SOLAR THERMAL POWER GENERATION

从理论方面对降低太阳能热发电投资成本的方式进行了分析,认为可通过扩大规模来降低投资成本,依靠扩大发电系统的规模和优化镜场设计来提高太阳能热发电系统的光电转换效率;碟式和点聚焦菲涅耳聚光系统的光热转换效率高,竞争力较强。当采用超大功率蒸汽轮机时,可使发电系统的规模扩大10倍、热电转换效率提高25%;按照光学效率和接收器热效率均达到92%计算,碟式聚光系统的光热转换效率可达到84.64%,而塔式聚光系统的光热转换效率为57.73%,前者比后者提高了46.62%,使碟式太阳能热发电系统的光电转换效率比塔式太阳能热发电系统的提高了83.3%,从而使碟式太阳能热发电系统的总投资成本比塔式太阳能热发电系统的下降了45.4%,共用跟踪系统使其总投资成本又下降了4.8%,再加上碟式太阳能热发电系统的中发电系统规模扩大10倍,最终,碟式太阳能热发电系统的总投资成本可比塔式太阳能热发电系统的降低75.2%。在不考虑材料和制造技术方面进步的情况下,太阳能热发电的上网电价可从目前的1元/kWh降至约0.25元/kWh,使太阳能热发电成为未来有竞争力的主要能源技术。

From the theoretical perspective,the method of reducing the investment cost of the solar thermal power generation system is analyzed.The analysis believes that the investment cost can be reduced by expanding the scale;relying on the expansion of the scale of power generation system and optimizing the mirror field design to improve efficiency;dish and point-focusing fresnel condenser system has high light and heat efficiency and is a highly competitive condenser system.When the power generation system uses super-power steam turbines,the scale can be increased by 10 times,and the power generation efficiency can be increased by 25%.According to the calculation of the optical efficiency and the receiver efficiency both reaching 92%,the light and heat efficiency of the dish solar thermal power generation system can reach 84.64%.The tower solar thermal power generation system is 57.73%,the former is 46.62%higher than the latter,and the former’s total system efficiency can be increased by 83.3%compared with the latter,so that the former’s total system cost is 45.4%lower than the latter.The total cost brought by the shared tracking system is reduced by 4.8%.In addition,expanding the scale of power generation system can reduce the cost of 50%.Compared with the tower solar thermal power generation system,the total cost of the dish solar thermal power generation system will be further reduced by 75.2%.Regardless of material and manufacturing technology advancements,the FIT can be reduced from the current 1 yuan/kWh to about 0.25 yuan/kWh,making solar thermal power generation a major competitive energy technology in the future.