居民心理预期与家庭风险资产配置

Residents' Psychological Expectation and RiskyFinancial Assets Allocation of Household

预期对微观经济主体行为的影响日益增强,论文基于中国家庭金融调查数据,在分析居民心理预期影响家庭风险资产选择机理的基础上,构建包含微观主体心理预期变量的Probit和Tobit模型,结合人口统计学、人力资本、收支、保险等因素,实证研究了居民心理预期对居民是否持有风险资产以及持有比重的影响。通过实证研究发现:第一,心理预期对居民家庭资产选择有重要作用,未来经济预期、未来房价预期对居民家庭持有风险资产具有反向作用;第二,户主受教育年限、家庭年收入、住房对居民家庭持有风险资产具有正向作用;第三,城镇居民以及股票市场具有类似的结论,表明居民心理预期对家庭风险资产配置的影响具有稳健性。论文最后提出系列针对性建议。

Expectation has an increasing impact on the behavior of micro economic agents.Based on China Household Finance Survey data,this paper analyzes the mechanism of how residents'psychological expectations affect the choice of household risk assets,and constructs the Probit and Tobit models including the variables of micro unit’s psychological expectation.Combining demography,human capital,income and expenditure,insurance and other factors,this paper empirically studies the influence of residents'psychological expectations on whether residents hold risky assets and the proportion of their holding.Through empirical research,we find that:firstly,psychological expectation plays an important role in household asset selection,while future economic expectation and future housing price expectation have a negative effect on households'holding of risky assets.Secondly,the number of years of education of the head of the household,family annual income and housing have a positive effect on the risk assets held by households.Thirdly,the urban residents and the stock market have similar conclusions,indicating that the impact of residents'psychological expectations on the allocation of household risk assets is robust.Finally,this paper puts forward a series of relevant suggestions.