中国OFDI对湄公河流域五国产业结构升级影响机理研究

IMPACTING MECHANISM OF CHINA’S OFDI ON FIVE MEKONG RIVER NATIONS IN THEIR INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE UPGRADING

"一带一路"倡议下,中国OFDI对湄公河流域国家产业结构升级产生了重要影响。对中国OFDI对沿线国家产业结构影响机理进行理论分析,并建立国家产业结构升级数理模型,利用2008—2018年中国对湄公河流域五国直接投资存量和相应的经济指标,通过中介效应分析,探讨中国OFDI对湄公河流域国家产业结构升级的影响。研究结果表明:中国OFDI整体上推动了湄公河流域五国的产业结构升级,且2008—2018年推动国家产业升级指数年均增长7.31个单位;中国OFDI通过技术溢出、生产要素供给和生产率3种效应推动了湄公河流域国家的产业升级,且相对于技术溢出效应和生产要素供给效应,生产率效应是中国OFDI推动沿线国家产业升级的最重要渠道。在"澜湄合作"背景下,强调中国OFDI对湄公河国家的积极影响,坚持鼓励性投资政策并加强政策引导作用,有助于更好地共建澜湄命运共同体。

Under the Belt and Road,China’s OFDI has shaped their industrial structure upgrading in Mekong river nations.This paper analyzes its impacting mechanism,establishes national industrial structure upgrading model,and uses direct investment stock and economic indicators of China on five Mekong river nations to analyze its impacts of China’s OFDI on Mekong river nations in their industrial structure upgrading via medium effect.China’s OFDI pushes their industrial structure upgrading generally,with an annual increasing rate 7.31 units during 2008 to 2018,through technical overflow,productive elements supply and three productivity effects,of which productivity effect contributes the most.Under the background of Lancangjiang-Mekong cooperation,it should be addressed that China’s OFDI exerts a positive influence on Mekong river nations.A supportive investment policy will better construct the united Lancangjiang-Mekong coalition.