中国货币政策透明度的宏观调控效应——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证分析

Macro Governance Effect of Monetary Policy Transparency in China:Empirical Analysis Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

引入社会福利目标函数,分析央行信息披露口径的扩大、透明度的提高对抑制通胀和产出缺口的作用,并构建指标体系测度中国货币政策近20年的透明度水平;然后运用时变VAR模型分析在不同框架下透明度与三大金融基本面工具的宏观调控效应。研究结果表明:透明度的提高对通胀和产出的调控存在非对称性,透明度提高整体可以抑制产出波动,但短期会加剧通胀波动,不利于通胀稳定。同时数量型工具仍是目前调控弹性、传导力度和政策收敛性更优的实际干预工具。

This paper analyzes the effect of the expansion of information disclosure of the People’s Bank of China and the improvement of transparency on the suppression of inflation and output gap by introducing the objective function of social welfare,and constructs the index system to measure the transparency level of monetary policy in China in the past 20 years.The time-varying VAR model is used to analyze the macro governance effect of the transparency and three financial fundamental instruments under different frameworks.The conclusion shows that the improvement of transparency has the asymmetric governance effect on inflation and output,it can restrain output fluctuation on the whole,but in the short run it will intensify the inflation fluctuation,thus affecting the inflation stability.At the same time,quantitative tool is still a practical intervention tool with better flexibility,strength and policy convergence.