天津市蓟州区柿树农业气象灾害区划

Regionalization of Persimmon Agrometeorological Disasters in Jizhou District of Tianjin City

本文利用1957—2018年天津市蓟州区地面常规气象观测站逐日日平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、降水量及43个区域站从建站到2018年逐小时气温和降水等资料,应用五日滑动平均法、熵值法、线性加权综合法和普通克里金插值法,进行了天津市蓟州区柿树主要农业气象灾害分析及区划。结果表明:萌芽期重度低温冷害发生频率为10%~61%,主要发生在北部;中度低温冷害发生频率为20.5%~27.0%,南部较高;轻度低温冷害发生频率为10%~61%,北部较高。花期重度冷害的发生频率为11.4%~30.4%,从南部到北部逐渐增高;中度低温冷害发生频率为37.9%~51.2%,东北部较高;轻度低温冷害发生频率为19.5%~42.7%,中部较高。果实生长期重度高温热害的发生频率为5.4%~18.2%,南部较高;中度高温热害的发生频率为7.7%~20.5%,南部较高;轻度高温热害的发生频率为16.6%~20.8%,中部和东部较高。农业气象灾害从东南平原向西北山区逐渐变轻,与蓟州区柿树实际种植区基本相符合。

This paper used the average daily temperature,minimum temperature,maximum temperature and precipitation of Jizhou Ground Conventional Meteorological Observatory of Tianjin City from 1957 to 2018,and hourly temperature and precipitation data of 43 regional stations from the construction of stations to 2018.Meanwhile,the five-day moving average method,entropy method,linear weighted comprehensive method and ordinary Kriging interpolation method were used to analyze and regionalize the agrometeorological disasters of persimmon trees in Jizhou District of Tianjin City.The results showed that the frequency of severe low temperature chilling injury in the germination period was 10%-61%,mainly occurring in the north;the frequency of moderate low temperature chilling injury was 20.5%-27.0%,and the frequency was high in the south;the frequency of mild low temperature chilling injury was 10%-61%,higher in the north.The frequency of severe chilling injury in flowering period was 11.4%-30.4%,which increased gradually from the south to the north;the frequency of moderate low temperature chilling injury was 37.9%-51.2%,and the northeast was higher;the frequency of mild cold chilling injury was 19.5%-42.7%,higher in the middle.The frequency of severe high temperature heat damage during fruit growth period was 5.4%-18.2%,which was higher in the south;the frequency of moderate high temperature heat damage was 7.7%-20.5%,and the south was higher;the frequency of mild high temperature heat damage was 16.6%-20.8%,which was higher in the middle and east.Agrometeorological disasters gradually became lighter from the southeast plain to the northwest mountainous area,which was consistent with the actual planting area of persimmon in Jizhou District.