化肥投入、粮食产量、空间关系实证与分析——以黑龙江省为例

Empirical and Analysis of Fertilizer Input,Grain Yield and Spatial Relationship--Take Heilongjiang Province as an Example

基于1994~2017年面板数据,利用Moran’s I指数分析黑龙江省13个区域化肥投入的空间相关性及变化,在此基础上建立空间杜宾模型,从时间维度和空间维度来研究化肥投入对粮食产量的空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:黑龙江省的化肥投入呈明显空间相关性,且在2006年由快速上升转为平稳上升趋势;从时间维度来看,黑龙江省化肥投入对粮食产量的空间溢出效应在逐年递增,粮食生产对化肥的依赖性在不断提升;从空间维度来看,黑龙江省水稻种植区化肥投入对粮食产量的空间溢出效应最为显著,其次是玉米种植区和大豆种植区。黑龙江省的水稻种植区化肥投入受相邻地区影响最为严重,黑龙江省降低化肥投入首先应从水稻种植开始。

Panel data of 13 regions in Heilongjiang province from 1994 to 2017 was selected and Moran’s I index was used to analyze the spatial correlation of fertilizer input.It was found that the spatial correlation of fertilizer input in Heilongjiang province was significant.Then the spatial dubin model was established to demonstrate the spatial relationship between fertilizer input and grain yield from two aspects:time dimension and space dimension.The results showed that the spatial relationship between fertilizer input and grain yield increased year by year.In terms of space,the spatial relationship between fertilizer input and grain yield in rice planting area was the most significant.Heilongjiang province should start with rice planting to reduce fertilizer input.