2021年初石家庄市新型冠状病毒肺炎暴发流行趋势分析

Modeling of a coronavirus disease outbreak at the beginning of 2021 in Shijiazhuang,Hebei Province,China

【目的】用数学模型模拟石家庄市新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称“新冠肺炎”)疫情暴发流行势态,预测暴发后流行趋势。【方法】收集石家庄市2021年1月2日至1月27日报告的每日新增新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例资料,基于传统易感者-暴露者-感染者-恢复者(SEIR)模型建立改进的考虑了无症状感染者在内的易感者-暴露者-无症状感染者-临床症状感染者-恢复者-累计感染者(SEIaIcRK)模型。【结果】截至2021年1月27日,该轮石家庄市累计报告新冠肺炎确诊病例863例。建立的SEIaIcRK模型较好地拟合了实际报告数据。模型结果表明该次新冠疫情的有效再生数从初期的3.80下降至1.54(1月4日),此后下降至1以下。疫情预计将在2月16日结束。【结论】改进的SEIaIcRK模型可用于新冠肺炎疫情的预测。石家庄市现有的防控措施使疫情得到很快地控制。

[Objective]To model an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Shijiazhuang and forecast its spread trend.[Method]We collected confirmed COVID-19 cases from the Health Commission of Hebei Province during the period of January 2 to January 27,2021.We built a new model(SEIaIcRK),including the contribution of asymptomatic cases,based on the traditional SEIR model to explore and analyze the transmission of COVID-19.[Results]A total of 863 confirmed cases were reported during the study period(ended on January 27,2021).Our model fitted well with the daily cumulative incidence data and showed that the effective reproductive number decreased sharply from 3.80 on January 2 to 1.54 on January 4,then further decreased to<1 afterwards.Our model also predicted that number of COVID-19 cases would not increase after Feb 16,2021.[Conclusion]The SEIaIcRK model can be used to predict the spread trend of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang.The current COVID-19 countermeasures effectively contain the disease spread.