计划配额下的生育权交易制度效率研究——基于福利的视角

Research on the Efficiency of Fertility Right Transaction System under the Planning Quota——From the Perspective of Welfare

通过对家庭自由生育、全面二孩、国家强制每个家庭生育两个子女以及计划配额下的生育权交易制度四种生育政策情景进行对比研究发现,从社会福利上看,全面二孩政策下的社会福利水平最低;从家庭福利上看,国家强制性生育下的家庭福利水平最低。未来伴随着社会养老、储蓄养老和子女不养老观念的形成,虽然家庭自由生育可以实现家庭福利的最大化,但会促使生育水平持续下降,社会福利遭受巨大损失,此时唯有实行有限制的自由生育。计划配额下的生育权交易制度正是这样一种生育制度设计,它既能够保证社会福利最大化,同时又不会过度损害家庭福利。上述研究,也说明当前的全面二孩政策,无论从家庭福利上看,还是从社会福利上看,都仅是一个过渡性的生育政策。

We do some comparative research of comprehensive two children, free fertility, compulsory fertility and fertility right trading and found, from the perspective of maximizing social welfare, social welfare, under the comprehensive two child policy is the lowest. From the perspective of maximizing household welfare, household welfare under the compulsory fertility policy is the lowest.Along with the culture formation of social pension, retirement savings and not supporting for their parents for children, and the rising trend of individual self-consciousness, although free fertility policy can maximize family welfare, but it will prompt fertility level to decline, finally, the social welfare will suffer from huge losses. At this point, in order to ensure the maximization of social welfare, while not excessive damage to the family welfare, we only implement a limited fertility policy in China. Of course, the above research, also shows that the current comprehensive two child policy is a transitional fertility policy.