农业前向、后向参与全球价值链分工对产业结构转型影响研究

Research on the Impact of Agricultural Forward and Backward Participation in Global Value Chains Division on Industrial Structure Transformation

随着国际分工的细化深化,越来越多的国家融入到全球价值链分工中。本文基于世界投入产出表与社会经济核算表,采用1995-2009年39个国家的跨国面板数据研究了农业前向、后向参与全球价值链分工对一国产业结构转型的影响。研究发现,无论是农业前向参与还是后向参与全球价值链分工都会促进一国产业结构转型,但后向参与对一国产业结构转型的作用大于前向参与的作用。人均收入与抚养人数占劳动人口比重的增加会促进一国产业结构的转型,对外开放度的提高与农业就业人员占就业总数的百分比增大会抑制一国产业结构的转型。进一步通过构造中介效应模型,分析了以农业全要素生产率作为中介变量的农业前、后向参与全球价值链分工对产业结构转型的影响机理。建议:一国产业结构在转型时,农业应重视全球价值链的后向参与,增强与其他国家GVC跨国生产的对接能力,并提高技术水平,促进劳动力的流动。

With the deepening of the international division of labor, more and more countries are integrated into the global value chain. Based on the World Input-Output Table and the Social Economic Accounting Table, this paper uses the multinational panel data of 39 countries from 1995 to 2009 to Analysis the impact of agricultural forward and backward participation in the global value chain(GVC) division on the industrial structure transformation of a country. The research shows that whether the agricultural forward participation or the backward participation in the GVC division will promote the transformation of a country’s industrial structure, but the role of backward participation in a country’s industrial structure transformation is greater than the role of forward participation. Further considering the model endogeneity and different index factors, the above conclusions are still stable. The increase in the per capita income and the number of dependents accounts for the proportion of the working population force will promote the transformation of a country’s industrial structure. The increase in the degree of external development and the increase in the percentage of agricultural employment in the total employment will inhibit the transformation of a country’s industrial structure. Furthermore, through the construction of the mediation effect model, this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of agricultural front-rear and post-participation in the GVC division on industrial structure transformation with agricultural total factor productivity as a mediator. Finally, the article draws the following revelation: in the transformation of a country’s industrial structure, we should pay attention to the backward participation of the GVC of agriculture, and enhance the docking ability with other countries’ GVC multinational production, improve the technical level, and promote the flow of labor.