基于热点分析与地理探测器的地质灾害敏感性评价

Sensitivity assessment of geological hazards based on hot spot analysis and geographic detectors

探讨地质灾害的空间分布特征与影响机理对于辅助区域灾害预警具有重要意义。以北京市为研究区,选取9个地质灾害敏感性评价因子,利用信息量模型与热点分析揭示北京市地质灾害空间集聚特征,结合地理探测器探讨其空间分布的主控因素。结果表明:极高与高敏感区主要聚集在北京市北部与西部山区,中等及以下敏感区则主要分布在东南部的堆积平原处;房山区、怀柔区与门头沟区等为地质灾害发生的热点聚集区,通州区、大兴区与朝阳区等为冷点聚集区;土地利用、NDVI、坡度、工程岩组、地震动加速度为北京市地质灾害发生的主要驱动因子,两因子间的交互作用对地质灾害的解释力均强于单因子。研究成果将为北京市地质灾害监测与防控提供科学依据。

It is of great significance to explore the spatial distribution characteristics and influence mechanism of geological disasters for assisting regional disaster early warning.The authors took Beijing as a research area.Nine factors were selected to evaluate the sensitivity of geological hazards.Using information quantity model and hot spot analysis to reveal the spatial clustering characteristics of geological disasters and applying geographical detector to discuss the main controlling factors of geological disasters in Beijing.The results showed that the extremely high and high sensitive areas were mainly concentrated in the northern and western mountainous areas of Beijing,while the medium and lower sensitive areas were mainly distributed in the accumulation plain in the southeast;Fangshan District,Huairou District and Mentougou District were hot spot gathering areas of geological disasters,while Tongzhou District,Daxing District and Chaoyang District were cold spot gathering areas;The driving factors such as land use,NDVI,slope,engineering rock group and ground motion acceleration had more significant explanatory power on the spatial distribution of geological disasters;The interaction between the two factors was stronger than the single factor in explaining the geological hazards.The research results will be the scientific basis for monitoring and preventing geological hazards in Beijing.