新冠疫情冲击下我国房地产市场复苏的影响机制研究

Research on Influencing Mechanism of the Recovery of China s RealEstate Market under the Impact of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下,我国房地产的复苏领先于大部分实体经济部门,其“量价齐涨”的现象与扩张性货币政策高度相关。为此,选择国房景气指数、国内生产总值和广义货币供应量作为研究对象,利用1996年第一季度至2020年第一季度的相关数据,构建向量自回归模型(VAR)进行实证分析。研究发现:第一,中国长期数据验证了房地产市场会受到实体经济和货币政策的双重影响,宽松的货币政策是此次房地产市场率先复苏的主要原因;第二,扩张性货币政策能在短期内刺激国房景气指数的上涨,但是该刺激作用在中长期内不可持续;第三,实体经济发展在短期内对房地产市场投资具有正向影响,但实体经济的促进作用不如货币政策。鉴于此,建议在疫情期间需要积极引导金融资源流向实体经济部门,提前规划相关政策工具的适时退出机制,避免对扩张性货币政策的过度依赖。

Under the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia,the recovery of China s real estate sector industry is ahead of most sectors of real economy.The phenomenon that housing volume and house price rise at the same time is likely to be highly related to expansionary monetary policy.Then this paper chooses the real estate climate index,GDP and broad monetary supply as the research objects,and uses the relevant data from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2020 to construct the vector autoregressive model(VAR)for empirical analysis.The results show that:firstly,China s long-term data verify that the real estate market will be affected by the real economy and monetary policy,and loose monetary policy is the main reason for the leading recovery of the real estate market.Secondly,expansionary monetary policy can stimulate the rise of the real estate climate index in the short term,but the stimulating effect is not sustainable in the medium and long term.Thirdly,the development of real economy has a positive impact on the real estate market investment in the short term,but the promotion of real economy is weaker than that of the monetary policy.On this basis,it is suggested that during the epidemic period,the central bank should actively guide financial resources to flow to the real economic sector,plan timely exit mechanism of relevant policy instruments in advance,and avoid excessive dependence on expansionary monetary policy.