双边领导人访问对中国在东盟直接投资的影响

Research on the Impact of Bilateral Leaders’Visits on China’s OFDI in ASEAN

对外直接投资是一国参与国际分工与获利的重要形式,近些年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的投资呈稳步增长趋势,其中重要一部分流向为东盟,而领导人访问在一国直接投资决策中具有重要导向作用。以东盟为样本,利用2004-2018年中国对其直接投资面板数据,研究双边领导人访问对中国在东盟直接投资区位选择影响效应,结果表明:双边领导人访问对中国在东盟直接投资有促进效应;不同访问方式的影响效应不同,中国领导人出访东盟对直接投资的促进作用比东盟领导人来访中国更显著;不同职级的领导人访问的作用效应存在一定差异。建议利用“一带一路”倡议,加强中国与各国的经济联系;适当考虑增加领导人的出访,促进中国对外直接投资;优化政治外交结构,提高外交出访影响效应。

Foreign direct investment is a key form of a country’s participation in the international division of labor and profitability.In recent years,China’s investment in countries along the“Belt and Road”has shown a steady growth trend,and an important part of it flows to ASEAN,while leaders’visits play an important guiding role in a country’s direct investment decision-making.This article uses ASEAN as a sample and uses China’s direct investment panel data from 2004 to 2018 to study the impact of bilateral leaders’visits on the location of China’s direct investment in ASEAN.The research shows:bilateral leaders’visits have a promoting effect on China’s direct investment in ASEAN;different visits have different effects,Chinese leaders’visits to ASEAN have a more significant effect on direct investment than ASEAN leaders’visits to China;there are certain differences in the effects of visits by leaders of different ranks.The resulting policy recommendations are as follows:using the“Belt and Road”initiative to strengthen economic ties between China and other countries;giving due consideration to increasing leaders’visits to promote China’s foreign direct investment;optimizing the political and diplomatic structure and increasing the impact of diplomatic visits.