新能源微电网不确定性负荷规划方法研究

Research on Uncertainty Load Planning Method of New Energy Microgrid

为提高新能源微电网负荷预测及规划能力,提出基于串行集成学习和负载自适应均衡配置的新能源微电网不确定性负荷规划方法。构建新能源微电网不确定性负荷的线性空间融合模型,通过重组非线性时间序列,完成新能源微电网不确定性负荷的输出时间序列分析。采用串行集成学习方式调节新能源微电网不确定性负荷稳定性,结合负载均衡调度法完成新能源微电网不确定性负荷的期望预测。利用指数序列评估的方法,预测新能源微电网不确定性负荷。基于此,采用负载自适应均衡配置和功率增量参数估计方法,规划新能源微电网不确定性负荷。仿真结果表明,所提负荷规划输出稳定性较高,负载均衡性较好,有效改善新能源微电网运行稳定性。

In order to improve the load forecasting and planning capability of new energy microgrids,a new energy microgrids uncertain load planning method based on serial integrated learning and load adaptive balanced allocation is proposed.A linear space fusion model for uncertain loads of the new energy microgrid is constructed,and the output time series analysis of uncertain loads of the new energy microgrid is completed by recombining the nonlinear time series.The uncertain load stability of the new energy microgrid is adjusted by serial integrated learning method,and the expected load prediction of the uncertain load of the new energy microgrid is completed by the load balancing method.The method of exponential series evaluation is used to predict the uncertain load of new energy microgrid.Based on this,load adaptive balancing configuration and power incremental parameter estimation are adopted to plan the uncertain load of the new energy microgrid.The simulation results showed that the proposed load planning has higher output stability and better load balance,which can effectively improve the operation stability of new energy microgrid.