老年家庭照料的机会成本研究——基于城乡等多视角的讨论

Opportunity Cost Study of Family Care for the Elderly——Discussion Based on Multiple Perspectives such as Urban and Rural Area

基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2015年的微观数据,使用机会成本法和人员替代法,划分城乡测算了中国28个省区(市)老年人家庭照料的机会成本,使用分位数回归模型对其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,老年人家庭照料时间呈现"西高东低"的态势,不同省区(市)之间的老年人家庭照料时间差距较大。根据机会成本法进行测算,城镇老年人家庭照料机会成本为1762.75元/月,农村老年人家庭照料机会成本为328.83元/月。老年人家庭照料机会成本存在区域不平衡,与地区经济发展水平之间存在显著的正相关关系,即随着人均GDP的提高,老年人家庭照料机会成本逐渐提高。中国老年人家庭照料机会成本呈现"三高三低"的结构特点,即城镇高于农村、高龄高于低龄、女性高于男性。

Based on the micro-data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2015,this paper used opportunity cost method and personnel substitution method to calculate the opportunity cost of family care for the elderly in 28 provinces in China,and further used quantile regression model to make an empirical analysis of its influencing factors. The results of the study showed that:(1)the family care time of the elderly showed a trend of"high west and low east",and the difference in family care time between the different provinces was large;(2)according to the opportunity cost method,the monthly opportunity cost of family care for the elderly in urban areas is 1762.75 yuan,and the monthly opportunity cost of family care for the elderly in rural areas is 328.83 yuan;(3)there is a significant positive correlation between the cost of family care and the level of regional economic development. With the increase of per capita GDP,the cost of opportunity for elderly family care is gradually increasing;(4)the opportunity cost of family care for the elderly in China presents the structural characteristics of"three highs and three lows",that means the urban areas are higher than the rural areas,the old age is higher than the younger age and the females are higher than the males.