逆周期调节、公共资本与经济增长

Countercyclical Adjustment,Public Capital,and Economic Growth

本文探讨了公共资本总量与结构对经济增长的影响,并揭示了逆周期调节的重要性。研究发现,公共资本与经济增长之间的关系呈倒U形,但当逆周期调节力度由低变高时,则由倒U形转为倒S形,并且这种关系源自于"市场一体化效应"与"融资成本效应",而两者关系的转变不仅是因为在两种机制下"集约边际"超过"广延边际",还与"新基建"扩张所引发的公共资本结构变迁相关。据此,应完善逆周期调控,深化金融改革与市场融合,以促进公共资本总量扩张与结构优化,为高质量发展提供动力。

This paper discusses the impact of the scale and structure of public capital on economic growth,and stresses the key role of countercyclical adjustment. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between public capital and economic growth. However,as the strength of countercyclical adjustment becomes larger,the relationship shifts from the inverted Ushape to the inverted S-shape. The formation of non-linear relationship results from the effect of market integration and the effect of financing cost,and the change of the relationship is not only because that the intensive margin exceeds the extensive margin under the two mechanisms,but also related to the optimization of public capital structure caused by the expansion of new infrastructure. Accordingly,the government should improve countercyclical regulation,deepen the financial reform,and promote the integration of national markets to advance the expansion of scale of public capital and the optimization of public capital structure,driving the high-quality development.