实体企业影子银行化会加剧违约风险吗?

Will the Shadow Banking Activities of the Real Sector Increase Default Risk?

在我国经济结构调整且实体经济下行的现阶段,实体企业面临前所未有的压力和风险,大量的实体企业减少主业投资,反而将资本投入影子银行业务充当类银行信用中介,参与资金空转套利。本文以2007—2018年我国非金融类上市公司为样本,考察实体企业影子银行化对违约风险的影响。研究发现,实体企业影子银行化会增加违约风险,并通过加剧现金流风险对违约风险产生影响。拓展性分析发现,对于国有、中西部、外部监管环境较弱以及处在经济收缩期的实体企业,其影子银行化对违约风险的影响效应更强。本文的研究有益于管理层合理优化企业的风险管理体系和现金管理机制,为经济新常态下优化资本市场资源配置效率和防范金融风险提供了理论与经验参考。

At the current stage characterized by economic structural adjustment and economic downturn,entity enterprises are facing unprecedented pressure and risks,but they invest a large amount of capital in shadow banking to act as bank credit intermediaries and participate in idling arbitrage of funds. This paper takes 2007—2018 non-financial listed companies of China as a sample to examine the impact of shadow banking of entity enterprises on default risk. The results show that the shadow banking of enterprises will increase the default risk,which can be affected by increasing the risk of cash flow. Extensive analysis finds that for state-owned enterprises,enterprises in China’s central and western regions,and those with weak external regulation,and in an economic contraction period,the impact of shadow banking on default risk is more significant.This paper is beneficial for the management to rationally optimize the enterprise ’s risk management system and cash management mechanism,and provides theoretical and empirical references for optimizing the efficiency of capital market resource allocation and preventing financial risks under the economic "new normal. "