基于区间数决策矩阵的堤防安全综合评价方法及应用

Comprehensive Evaluation Method and Application of Dike Safety Based on Interval Number Decision Matrix

鉴于堤防工程结构复杂、运行条件变幅大,存在失事风险,基于后果逆向扩散法,建立了综合考虑堤防各种失事形式的单目标、多层次、半结构型评价指标体系,并构建了堤防安全综合评价方法,该方法通过引入区间数理论,结合层次分析法、熵值法确定评价指标的主客观权重,依据集值统计进行区间打分,最后基于幂指数法得到堤防安全综合评价值。对武汉市长江堤防的安全评价结果表明,基于区间数决策矩阵的堤防安全综合评价方法实用性好、区分度高,能真实反映堤防安全状况,具有较强的工程指导意义。

In view of the complex structure of the embankment project and large changes in operating conditions,there is a risk of accident.Based on the consequence reverse diffusion method,a single-objective,multi-level,semi-structured evaluation index system that comprehensively considers various forms of dike failures has been established,and a comprehensive evaluation method of dike safety has been constructed.Through the introduction of interval number theory,combined with analytic hierarchy process and entropy method is used to determine the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indicators.The interval scoring is based on set value statistics.Finally,the comprehensive evaluation value of dike safety is obtained based on the power index method.The safety evaluation results of the Yangtze River embankment in Wuhan show that the comprehensive evaluation method of embankment safety based on the interval number decision matrix has good practicability and high discrimination,can truly reflect the safety status of the embankment,and has strong engineering guiding significance.