RCEP框架下中国对东盟水产品出口边际影响因素的实证研究

An empirical study on the marginal influencing factors of China's aquatic products export to ASEA Nunder the RCEP framework

RCEP协定正式签署后,东盟作为RCEP中中国最重要的水产品出口市场,对提高中国水产品出口创汇水平至关重要。运用2002—2018年中国对东盟水产品出口数据,分析了中国对东盟水产品出口增长的三元边际特征及影响因素。结果显示:中国对东盟水产品出口整体增长模式为“价格增长为主,数量增长为辅”;中国的经济发展规模、固定贸易成本是影响中国对东盟水产品出口三元边际的最主要因素。应采取推进双边贸易合作、实现水产品出口多元化、改变粗放型水产品增长模式、完善升级中国-东盟自贸区和降低固定贸易成本等措施,均衡拉动中国对东盟的水产品出口增长。

After the formal signing of RCEP agreement,ASEAN,as the most important aquatic products export market of China in RCEP,is crucial to improving the level of China's earning foreign exchange through aquatic products export.Using the data of China's aquatic product exports to ASEAN from 2002 to 2018 to analyze the ternary marginal characteristics and influencing factors of the growth of China's aquatic product exports to ASEAN.The results show that the overall growth model of China's aquatic products export to ASEAN can be characterized by domination of price growth with quantity growth being secondary and that the scale of China's economic development and fixed trade costs are the most important factors affecting the ternary margins of China's aquatic product exports to ASEAN.Measures should be taken to promote bilateral trade cooperation,achieve diversification of aquatic product exports,change the extensive growth model of aquatic products,upgrade the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and reduce fixed trade costs to promote the growth of China's aquatic product exports to ASEAN in a balanced manner.