云南高原昆明市旱涝急转特征及其城市化响应研究

The Research on Characteristics of Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation and the Response with Urbanization in Kunming of Yunnan Plateau

基于昆明市1965-2016年逐日降水资料,计算昆明市汛期(5-10月)的长周期旱涝急转指数、短周期旱涝急转指数和旱涝急转强度,采用小波分析、M-K突变检验、灰色关联度等方法,分析了昆明市的旱涝急转特征及其与城市化的相关性。结果表明:在1965-2016年,昆明市长周期旱涝急转指数LDFAI(Long-term drought-flood abrupt alternations index)呈-0.066·(10a)-1的下降趋势,反映出昆明市的旱转涝事件减少、涝转旱事件增多的状况,并且昆明市汛期长周期旱涝急转指数LDFAI序列出现2个突变点,但突变并不明显;昆明市长周期旱涝急转指数存在18年的主周期变化;从短周期旱涝急转指数SDFAI(Short-term drought-flood abrupt alternations index)来看,昆明市5-7月和8-9月旱转涝事件增多、涝转旱事件减少,而7-8月和9-10月表现出相反的趋势;从旱涝急转与城市化的相关性来看,在分辨率为0.5时,城市化指标的6个因子对旱涝急转产生不同程度的影响,所有指标关联度都在0.6以上,表明城市化指标与旱涝急转显著关联,与旱涝急转强度关联度最大是烟粉尘排放量,最小的是非农业经济总产值,关联度分别为0.91和0.63。

Based on the daily precipitation data of Kunming from 1965 to 2016,the index of the long-term drought-flood abrupt alternations index(LDFAI)in flood season(from May to October),short-term droughtflood abrupt alternations index(SDFAI)and the intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternations are calculated in this study. The characteristics of the drought-flood abrupt alternations in Kunming,and the correlation between the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternations and urbanization are analyzed by using the methods which include the wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall(M-K)mutation test,grey correlation degree and other methods.The results indicate that the LDFAI shows the declining trend(-0. 066 per 10 years)from 1965 to 2016,which means the decrement of drought-to-flood events but the increasement of flood-to-drought events in Kunming. Besides,LDFAI shows two mutation points in Kunming,but they are not significant. There is an 18-year main period of LDFAI in Kunming. On the other hand,according to the results of SDFAI,there is an increasement of drought-to-flood events,but a decrement of flood-to-drought events from May to July and from August to September. However,the opposite results are appeared from July to August and from September to October in Kunming. According to the correlation between the drought-flood abrupt alternations and urbanization,the six factors of urbanization index have effect of varying degrees on the drought-flood abrupt alternations at the resolution ratio of 0. 5,All the correlation degree indexes are above 0. 6,the urbanization index is significantly related to the drought-flood abrupt alternation. The most significant factors are smoke and dust emission,while the least important one is the total output value of non-agricultural economy,and their correlation coefficients are 0. 909 and 0. 630 respectively.