广西中长期电力交易三年发展规划研究

Study on Three-Year Development Plan of Medium and Long-Term Electricity Trading in Guangxi

2016年广西正式步入中长期电力交易时代,逐年推动电价下降、红利释放,在一定程度上助推了广西的经济发展,中长期电力市场也日趋完善。为提前谋划好未来三年广西中长期电力市场的发展,进一步深入推动电力体制改革、扩大市场红利享受面,文章基于WHPS软件下的电力电量平衡结果,综合运用HHI指数、博弈论和均衡理论等对广西中长期电力市场开展研究。研究表明:在市场规模方面,2021—2023年中长期市场规模为930亿~1150亿kW∙h,用户侧以覆盖区内优势资源产业的大用户为主,电源侧需将风电纳入中长期电力市场;在交易品种方面,以维持现有交易品种为主,推动售电侧市场健康发展为辅;在协调策略方面,需提升用户侧、售电侧、电源侧、电网侧、监管方的多方合力。

In 2016,Guangxi officially entered the era of medium and long-term electricity trading,which promoted the decline of electricity price and the release of dividends year by year,which promoted the economic development of Guangxi to a certain extent,and the medium and long-term electricity market was becoming more and more perfect.In order to plan the development of Guangxi’s medium and long-term electricity market in the next three years in advance,further promote the reform of electricity system and expand the market share of dividends,this paper studies Guangxi’s medium and long-term electricity market by using HHI index,game theory,general equilibrium theory based on the power and electricity balance results under the WHPS software.The results shows that:in terms of market scale,the medium and long-term market scale from 2021 to 2023 is 93 billion-115 billion kW·h,the user side mainly covers the large users of advantageous resource industries in the region,and the power side needs to incorporate wind power into the medium and long-term electricity market;in terms of trading varieties,it is mainly to maintain the existing trading varieties,supplemented by promoting the healthy development of the electricity sales side market;in terms of coordination strategies,it is necessary to enhance the joint efforts of the user side,power sales side,power supply side,power grid side and regulators.