气候变化对安徽省淮北地区夏玉米气象产量的影响

Effect of Climate Change on Meteorological Yield of Summer Maize in Huaibei Area of Anhui Province

基于安徽省淮北地区24个气象观测站1961~2018年逐日气象资料及对应市(县)1961~2014年夏玉米产量资料,采用气候倾向率、M-K突变检验、相关分析、回归分析等方法,分析了安徽省淮北地区夏玉米生长季太阳总辐射、≥10℃积温、气温日较差、降水量等气候资源时空变化特征及对夏玉米气象产量的影响。结果表明:(1)1961~2018年安徽省淮北地区夏玉米全生育期、营养生长期、并进期、生殖生长期太阳总辐射和日较差均呈极显著减少趋势(P<0.01),≥10℃积温和降水量呈不显著增加趋势;空间分布上,太阳总辐射和气温日较差由北向南逐渐减少,≥10℃积温空间差异小,降水量总体呈径向分布,高值区位于淮北东部。(2)近58 a安徽省淮北地区夏玉米生长季太阳总辐射和日较差分别在1981和1982年发生了由多到少的突变,突变后较突变前分别减少了220.1 MJ·m^(-2)和0.7℃;≥10℃积温、降水量无明显突变点。(3)降水量是影响淮北地区夏玉米气象产量的主要因子,并与气象产量呈二次曲线关系;≥10℃积温对夏玉米气象产量影响为负效应,其中并进期达显著水平(P<0.05);太阳总辐射和气温日较差影响不显著。气候资源变化对夏玉米气象产量综合影响在全生育期和并进期达到显著水平(P<0.05),在营养生长期达极显著水平(P<0.01)。(4)安徽省淮北地区在夏玉米种植过程中,可以通过加强水利基础设施建设,提升水分调节能力,提高夏玉米气象产量。

This research analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of total solar radiation, accumulated temperature above 10℃, precipitation and temperature diurnal range during growing season of summer maize and their effects on meteorological yield of summer maize in Huaibei area of Anhui Province, by the means of climate tendency rate, M-K mutation test, correlation analysis and regression analysis, based on the data include daily meteorological data on 24 meteorological stations in Huaibei area of Anhui Province from 1961 to 2018,as well as the yield data for summer maize of corresponding cities(counties) from 1961 to 2014. The result showed that(1) for summer maize in Huaibei Area of Anhui Province during 1961-2018, the total solar radiation and temperature diurnal range both declined significantly(P<0.01) in the whole growth stage, vegetative stage, vegetative and reproductive stage, as well as the reproductive stage. And the accumulated temperature above 10℃ and precipitation increased insignificantly(P>0.05). In terms of spatial distribution, the total solar radiation and temperature diurnal range gradually decreases from north to south;The spatial variation of accumulated temperature above 10℃ was not significant;The precipitation generally showed radial distribution, while the high value area was located in the east of Huaibei.(2) In recent 58 years, the total solar radiation and diurnal range of summer maize in Huaibei region of Anhui province mutated from a large amount to a limited amount in 1981 and 1982 respectively, and decreased by 220.1 MJ·m^(-2) and 0.7℃ respectively after mutation;And there was no obvious mutation in the accumulated temperature above 10℃ and precipitation.(3) Precipitation is the main meteorological factor that affected the summer maize meteorological yield in Huaibei area, and had quadratic relations between meteorological yield. The accumulated temperature above 10℃ had a negative effect on the meteorological yield for summer maize, reaching a significant level(P < 0.05) in vegetative and reproductive stage. Meanwhile, the influence of total solar radiation and diurnal range is insignificant. The comprehensive effect of change for climatic resources on meteorological yield of summer maize reached significant level(P <0.05) in the whole growth stage as well as the vegetative and reproductive stage, and reached extremely significant level(P <0.01) in the reproductive stage.(4) In the process of summer maize planting, strengthening construction of water infrastructure can contribute to the improvement of the ability to control water, thus the meteorological yield for summer maize in Huaibei area would increase.