多中心空间结构是否有助于工业减排?——来自中国省级数据的经验证据

Whether Polycentric Spatial Structure Contributes to Industrial Emission Reduction?Empirical Evidence from China s Provincial Data

基于1998—2016年我国省级面板数据,将地理指标与外生政策变量相结合构建工具变量,进而运用工具变量估计和中介效应模型考察了多中心空间结构对我国工业排放的影响、作用机制以及约束条件。研究发现:首先,单位产值的工业排放随着省份空间结构多中心水平的提升呈现显著的下降趋势,在区分了省份所在区位的差异之后,此结论依然稳健;其次,在作用机制方面,市场一体化和要素流动是多中心空间结构降低工业排放的重要途径;最后,城市化和基础设施水平在多中心空间结构降低工业排放过程中发挥了显著的调节作用。据此,工业减排的实现既需要各区域加速形成多中心发展格局,提高要素流动速率和市场一体化程度,也需要提高城市化发展质量,推进高水平基础设施建设,进而提升多中心空间结构的正向外部效应。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1998 to 2016,this paper combines geographical indicators with exogenous policy variables to construct instrumental variables,and uses instrumental variable estimation and mediating effect model to investigate the impact,mechanism and constraint conditions of multi-center spatial structure on China s industrial emissions.The study has found that,first of all,the industrial emissions per unit of output value shows a significant downward trend with the improvement of multi-center level of the spatial structure of provinces.This conclusion remains stable after regional differences of provinces are distinguished.Secondly,in terms of mechanism of action,market integration and factor flow are important ways to reduce industrial emissions in multi-center spatial structure.Finally,urbanization and infrastructure levels play a significant regulatory role in the process of reducing industrial emissions from multicenter spatial structures.Therefore,the realization of industrial emission reduction not only requires accelerating the formation of multi-center development pattern in various regions and improving factor flow rate and degree of market integration,but also requires improvement the quality of urbanization development and promotion of high-level infrastructure construction,so as to enhance the positive external effect of multi-center spatial structure.