生物能源发展影响了粮食价格形成吗?——基于玉米品种的实证分析

Has Bio-energy Development Influenced Grain Prices Formation?An Empirical Study Based on Maize

生物能源发展是否影响粮食价格的形成,是粮食流通领域的一个热点研究议题。在分析中国生物能源发展现状的基础上,结合现行粮食转化能源政策,建立了适用于分析现阶段能源价格与粮价关系的理论模型,并运用向量误差修正模型和BEKK-GARCH模型等工具,进一步实证检验了传统能源与生物能源在长期、短期和波动溢出三个方面如何影响粮食价格。实证检验结果显示,无论从长期、短期还是波动溢出层面看,以石油和煤炭为代表的传统能源价格对粮食价格的影响更大,生物能源发展对粮食价格形成的影响有限。生物能源具有清洁、低碳与可持续等多重优点,是国家未来发展十分倚重的新型能源,建议政府对生物能源加工产业进行分品种、分类别差异化管理,鼓励储备时间超期或品种短期结构性过剩的粮食向生物能源转化。

Whether development of bioenergy influences formation of grain prices is a hot research topic in the field of grain circulation.Based on the analysis of current development status of bioenergy in China and combination of current grain conversion energy policy,this paper establishes a theoretical a model applicable to analyze relationship between energy prices and food prices at the current stage,and uses vector error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model and other tools,to test how traditional energy and bioenergy impact food prices in the long term,short term and volatility spillover.Empirical test show that,no matter it is from the long-term,short-term or volatility spillover perspective,the bio-energy development has limited influence on the grain prices formation compared to the larger influence of traditional energy prices represented by petroleum and coal on the grain prices.Multiple advantages in the bio-energy are clean,low-carbon and sustainable,which and has made it a new type energy source that the future development of the country will greatly rely on.Therefore,it s suggested that the government conduct diversified and differentiated management of the bioenergy processing industry,and encourage the conversion of grain that has been stored for an extended period of time or that has a short-term structural surplus of grain into bioenergy.