嵩山景区紫外辐射分析和预报方法研究

Study on UV Radiation Analysis and Forecast Methods in Songshan Scenic Area

本文利用2018年1月1日至2019年12月31日河南省登封市嵩山气象站太阳紫外辐射监测数据,分析了两年间嵩山景区的紫外线辐射特征,提出了模式预报方程,并将预报结果用于气象服务,从而为广大游客出行提供防晒指导。结果表明,嵩山景区紫外辐射较强,而且有显著的季节变化特征,6月份达到最大值,12月份达到最小值,紫外辐射(UVA)占总辐射的比例为5.49%,略低于8%的平均水平。嵩山景区A波段紫外辐射平均辐照度有明显的日变化,在北京时间13:00左右达到日最大值,并且紫外辐射的消失时间滞后于太阳落山时间。笔者选取了对游客户外活动影响较大的紫外辐射60 min滑动平均最大值作为分析目标,通过逐步回归分析法分析各气象要素与紫外辐射60 min滑动平均最大值的相关性,确认了影响嵩山地区紫外辐射的主要气象因子,其分别为日平均总云量、时平均相对湿度和时平均温度,并且与太阳高度角有较好的吻合度。其间利用多元回归方法建立了春、夏、秋、冬四季的辐照度预报方程,其通过显著性水平α=0.001的检验,对日常辐照度预报工作有很好的指导意义。

This paper used the solar ultraviolet radiation monitoring data from Songshan Meteorological Station in Dengfeng City,Henan Province from January 1,2018 to December 31,2019,to analyze the characteristics of ultraviolet radiation in Songshan Scenic Area during the two years,then put forward the model forecast equation,and apply the results to meteorological service,so as to provide guidance for tourists to travel with sun protection.The results show that the ultraviolet radiation in Songshan Mountain is relatively strong,and has significant seasonal changes,reaching the maximum in June and the minimum in December,meanwhile,the UV radiation(UVA)accounts for 5.49% of the total radiation,slightly lower than the average level of 8%.The average irradiance of A-band ultraviolet radiation in Songshan Scenic Area has obvious diurnal changes,reaching a daily maximum around 13:00 Beijing time,while the disappearance time of ultraviolet radiation lags behind the time of sun setting.The author selected the maximum 60 min moving average value of ultraviolet radiation,which had a great influence on tourists'outdoor activities,as the analysis target,and analyzed the correlation between each meteorological element and the maximum 60 min moving average value of ultraviolet radiation through stepwise regression analysis,and confirmed the main meteorological factors that affected the ultraviolet radiation in Songshan area through the stepwise regression analysis method,which were the daily average total cloud cover,hourly average relative humidity and hourly average temperature,and had a good agreement with the sun altitude angle.In the meantime,the multiple regression method was used to establish the irradiance forecast equations for the four seasons of spring,summer,autumn and winter,which passed the test of significance level α=0.001,which had good guiding significance for daily irradiance forecasting.